Wall Street returns from a long Independence Day weekend walking into one of the most event-rich Monday openings in recent memory. The June jobs report — the most important economic release of the week — dropped Thursday at 57,000 payrolls, roughly half of expectations. Meta dropped an AI cloud bombshell that cratered the entire neocloud complex. And Rivian delivered one of the biggest earnings-adjacent beats in the EV sector all year. All of it is still being digested. Monday is when the market votes – Stocks to Watch Tomorrow!

Here is the full pre-market briefing — every stock and data point that matters.

📍 The Macro Setup Heading Into Monday

Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by just 57,000 — slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. To make it worse, April and May figures were revised down a combined 74,000 jobs. The June payroll miss stands in stark contrast to the run of upside surprises earlier this year, but the labor market is still adding jobs and wages show few signs of accelerating.

The market’s reaction was telling: stock futures rose on the data, pricing out the last remaining Fed hike probability for September. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3.5 basis points as traders repositioned. Growth stocks, rate-sensitives, and long-duration names all stand to benefit if that logic holds through Monday. However, the sticky 3.5% average hourly earnings growth keeps the Fed cautious — expect Fed Chair Warsh to stay neutral until July’s CPI reading.

🗓️ Monday’s Market Calendar

The ISM Services PMI is Monday’s biggest macro wildcard. The Services PMI was moved due to the 4th of July holiday observed on July 3, 2026. The May reading was a healthy 54.5% — the 23rd consecutive month of expansion. If June slips below 54 (consistent with the NFP weakness), risk-off sentiment could return and reverse the post-jobs rally in futures. If it holds above 54, the bulls keep the ball. Either way, 10 AM ET is a critical inflection point.

💣 1. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) — The Cloud Disruptor That Sent the Whole Sector Reeling

Last Close (July 2): +8.8% | Market Cap: ~$1.9T

The most consequential story heading into Monday isn’t the jobs number — it’s Meta’s cloud pivot. Meta Platforms is launching a cloud infrastructure division designed to monetize surplus AI computing resources, with its new internal project dubbed “Meta Compute” aiming to commercialize both AI model access and raw computational power — a strategy that resembles Amazon Web Services’ Bedrock platform.

What Monday’s Tape Is Watching:

• META stock surged +8.8% on July 2 — on a day when the Nasdaq was flat-to-negative. That’s an extraordinary divergence
• The Bloomberg report confirms Meta is evaluating both AI model access and raw GPU capacity sales to external developers
• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg had previously signaled to investors that “surplus AI infrastructure represents a potential monetization opportunity” — this is that signal becoming reality
• Meta’s willingness to build tens of gigawatts of AI capacity confirms that compute demand remains massive, and competition signals opportunity rather than collapse.

Monday Setup: META is coming in with significant momentum. Watch the $640–$650 zone as first resistance on any continuation. The pre-holiday surge may face mild profit-taking, but institutions that missed the move will be watching for dips. Any additional detail or denial on the Meta Compute timeline could move the stock sharply in either direction.

📉 2. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) — The $13.9% Crasher Looking for a Bounce

Last Close (July 2): $85.68 | Down from $99.54 | −13.9% single session

CoreWeave stock collapsed 13.9% to $85.68 on news of Meta’s cloud plans. CoreWeave currently sits approximately 48% below its 52-week peak. The logic is brutal but simple: CoreWeave holds a $21 billion contract with Meta — if Meta starts competing with CoreWeave instead of relying on it, the entire business model faces a structural challenge.

The Bear Case (Why It Fell):

• Meta is CoreWeave’s largest and most important client
• A Meta that sells compute would turn an anchor buyer into a direct competitor
• Bernstein characterized the development as “problematic for CoreWeave” and emphasized that hyperscaler competition has been inevitable — expressing skepticism about CoreWeave’s long-term business viability.
• CoreWeave’s total debt stands at $24.9 billion — and interest payments are consuming nearly half of adjusted EBITDA

The Bull Case (Why Monday Could See a Bounce):

• Nebius holds a $27 billion Meta deal and CoreWeave a $21 billion agreement — Meta’s plans remain early and could change. Nothing in the existing contracts changed
• Q1 2026 revenue was $2.08 billion (+112% YoY) — the underlying business is still growing explosively
• Revenue backlog: $99.4 billion — nearly $100B in signed commitments
• The 13.9% single-day collapse has pushed CRWV into oversold territory; dead-cat bounces after large single-session crashes are common

Monday Watch: Support sits at $82–$85. A hold above $85 with any volume opens a recovery attempt toward $92. Any denial or clarification from Meta that its cloud plans will not affect existing contracts would trigger a sharp squeeze.

📉 3. Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) — The $12 Billion Single-Day Wipeout

Last Close (July 2): $229.18 | Down from $276.17 | −17%

Nebius closed at $229.18, down from $276.17, after Bloomberg reported that Meta is planning a cloud business to sell AI computing power and model access. Meta is Nebius’s largest potential customer, with contracts worth up to $30 billion across two agreements.

The Reality Check — What Actually Changed:

• The $12 billion dedicated-capacity tranche (firm, delivery starting early 2027) is unchanged
• The $15 billion optional tranche is what the market repriced — this is the portion that depends on Meta not building its own competing capacity
• Nebius’s 2026 guidance is unchanged. The selloff reflects a repricing of how likely the optional tranche and future renewals now look, not any lost revenue.

Why It May Recover Faster Than CRWV:

• Cash: $9.3 billion — extremely well-funded compared to CoreWeave’s debt-heavy structure
• Q1 2026 revenue: $399 million (+684% YoY)
• Adjusted net loss: just -$100.3 million — far smaller than CoreWeave’s -$740 million Q1 loss
• Nvidia has a direct investment in Nebius — a strategic backstop that CoreWeave doesn’t have
• Nebius had gained 219% from its first close of 2026 to its June 18 record of $286.69. Even after the July 2 selloff, the stock is still up about 155% for the year.

Monday Watch: NBIS support at ~$220–$225. If Meta cloud news doesn’t escalate further, expect institutional dip-buyers to step in — the underlying business case didn’t change, just the sentiment.

⚡ 4. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) — The EV Breakout That Isn’t Done Yet

Last Close (July 2): ~$18.63 | +8.44% | 52-Week Range: $11.57 – $22.69

On July 2, 2026, Rivian raised its delivery guidance for the full year, resulting in a significant stock price increase of over 15% over the prior week. The specifics were even more impressive than the headline suggested.

The Q2 2026 Beat, Unpacked:

• Q2 deliveries: 12,194 vehicles — crushed the prior guidance of 9,000–11,000
• Q2 production: 12,613 vehicles — above deliveries, meaning inventory is not piling up
• Year-over-year growth: +14% vs. Q2 2025’s 10,661 deliveries
• Reflecting the stronger operating momentum and visibility into second-half production, Rivian raised its full-year 2026 delivery guidance from 62,000–67,000 vehicles to 65,000–70,000.
• R2 SUV deliveries have started — a key commercial milestone that opens Rivian’s mass-market consumer push

Key Data:

Monday Setup: RIVN had the best fundamental news of any stock on July 2 — and the stock is still well below its 52-week high of $22.69. Nine analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward post-delivery report. A double-top formation near $19.00 is the key technical level to watch. A high-volume close above $19 would signal a bullish continuation toward $21–$22. Under $19, expect consolidation.

The Risk: RIVN is still pre-profit. Automotive gross margin went negative in Q1 2026 (-$62M). The July 30 full earnings report will be the reality check on cash burn and whether the delivery beat translated to financial improvement.

🤖 5. Chip Stocks (SNDK, MU, NVDA, INTC, MRVL) — Oversold and Ripe for Rotation

The semiconductor complex got demolished on July 2. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 6.7% in a single session after roughly doubling during Q2 — the heaviest single-day correction the index has seen in months.

The Damage (July 2 Close):

Monday’s Recovery Potential:

• The sell-off was fear-driven, not fundamental — none of these companies reported bad news
• Micron’s ($41.46B quarter, 84.9% gross margin) thesis is completely intact
• The Meta cloud pivot actually increases AI capex long-term — more data centers = more chips
• RSI on multiple names is at oversold levels after the July 2 sell-off
• Expect dip-buyers to emerge if ISM Services PMI confirms economic expansion

🚗 6. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) — 480,126 Deliveries. Now What?

Q2 2026 Deliveries: 480,126 vehicles — reported July 2 alongside Rivian’s numbers.

Tesla’s Q2 delivery figure of 480,126 represents a sequential rebound from Q1’s softer numbers. The question for Monday is simple: did it beat or miss the revised consensus? With Rivian’s stock up 8% on its delivery beat, Tesla’s reaction will depend entirely on where analyst estimates landed. Watch for any early analyst commentary on the delivery figures to set the tone. Tesla’s next full earnings report is expected in mid-to-late July 2026.

💰 7. UMC (NYSE: UMC) — The Semiconductor Stock That Just Broke Into New Territory

After-Hours Thursday: $27.52 (+14.29%) | Prior 52-Week High: $24.17

The UMC after-hours price today is $27.52, reflecting a +14.29% after-hours move since the market last closed. UMC reported June net sales growth of 43.2% year-over-year — and the market responded with a historic after-hours surge that broke the stock out of its prior 52-week range entirely.

Monday setup: UMC opens in uncharted territory above $24.17. Watch for early volume to determine if the move is being confirmed by institutional buying or fading on thin holiday-week interest. Ex-dividend date is July 8 ($0.412/share) — anyone holding as of July 8 receives the payout, creating a natural bid.

🧭 Bottom Line for Monday, July 6

Monday’s session will be defined by three forces pulling in different directions:

Bullish: Weak jobs report removes rate hike risk, oil prices down (deflationary), ISM Services expected to hold above 50, RIVN and Tesla delivery momentum.

Bearish/Uncertain: Meta cloud news still reverberating through AI infrastructure names; chip stocks oversold but catalyst for recovery unclear; thin post-holiday volume amplifies moves.

The Priority Watchlist:

1. 10:00 AM ISM Services PMI — sets the macro tone for the entire session
2. META — does the cloud narrative continue or fade?
3. CRWV/NBIS — recovery bounce or continued selling?
4. RIVN — can it break and hold above $19?
5. UMC — does the pre-market gap hold on volume?
6. Chip names (SNDK, MU) — oversold bounce candidates

Follow TNN for daily  stock market news and financial news today.

Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades. Prices referenced reflect closing data from July 2–3, 2026, and may change materially by Monday’s open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Further Reading:

• Bureau of Labor Statistics — June 2026 Employment Situation
• Rivian Q2 2026 Production & Delivery Report
• Meta Platforms Bloomberg Cloud Report Coverage
• Federal Reserve July 2026 Meeting Preview
• ISM Services PMI Release Schedule

About The Author

Kasia Davis

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