With more than two million Canadians casting ballots in advanced voting and two leaders’ debates behind them, the latest data from the Angus Reid Institute paint a familiar yet nuanced picture of Canada election polls today. Despite Pierre Poilievre narrowing the gap in personal favourability, the Liberal Party under Mark Carney maintains a national lead of 44% to the Conservatives’ 39%. That unchanged vote share suggests that while individual perceptions are shifting, overall who is winning Canada election polls remains the same—at least for now.
Shifting Leader Momentum, Static Party Standings
Last week, Poilievre posted a -20 “improved minus worsened” favourability score. Post‑debate, he has climbed to -7, indicating that more voters view him more positively than negatively. Carney, by contrast, slid from a +2 to a -2 rating over the same period. Even so, both leaders’ overall favourability ratings remain far apart: Carney holds 54% positive impressions, while Poilievre’s ceiling remains around 38%.
These personal gains for the Conservative leader are important but have yet to translate into significant movement in vote intention. Without a fully costed platform—due this Tuesday—Poilievre’s party lacks the policy detail necessary to convince fence‑sitters to switch their ballots.
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Urban Battlegrounds: Liberals Extend Their Lead
In key metropolitan regions, the Liberals’ advantage grows:
- Toronto (416): Liberals outpace Conservatives by 34 points.
- Suburban Toronto (905) & Metro Vancouver: Liberal leads widen, maintaining double‑digit margins.
- Montreal: Liberals dominate at 47%, with the Bloc Québécois trailing at 24% and the NDP still in single digits.
These figures underscore the challenge for Poilievre; urban voters continue to favor Carney’s vision, and the Conservatives must find a way to resonate in Canada’s most populated ridings.
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Key Drivers and Issue Advantages
For many Liberal switchers, Carney’s leadership and the “anyone‑but‑Conservative” sentiment play major roles. A full 45% of voters who decided to back the Liberals since January say they did so to defeat the CPC—up from 30% in March.
On policy, Carney holds substantial edges across most top issues:
- U.S. Trade Relations: +24 points
- Growing Non‑U.S. Trade: +26 points
- Economic Growth: +15 points
- Health Care Improvements: +13 points
The one exception is the cost of living, where Carney and Poilievre are tied at 37% each, reflecting widespread economic anxiety among Canadians.
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Carney’s Break from Trudeau’s Legacy
Replacing Justin Trudeau, Carney faces the question of his distinctiveness. A clear majority—59% of Canadians—view him as different from his predecessor, with 35% citing a major departure in style and approach. Even among 2021 Conservative voters, nearly three‑in‑ten acknowledge Carney’s fresh perspective.
This “change from Trudeau” narrative helps explain why the Liberals have retained their lead: voters perceive a new liberal era, driven by Carney’s fiscal expertise, rather than a continuation of past controversies.
Looking Ahead: Platforms and the Final Stretch
With the Conservatives on the cusp of unveiling their costed platform, Poilievre’s team hopes to convert his personal momentum into ballots. Yet, as it stands, Canada election polls carney poilievre show a race that remains static in numbers. But dynamic in sentiment. Whether the platform release can tilt voter intentions in the closing days is now the central question for Party strategists and Canadians alike.
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