Contrary to past conventions, the stock market dismisses the attempt of Trump assassination. The markets have been effected by past violence directed at American political figures. Wall Street is not as focused this time.
The attempted trump assassination of a presidential contender was unable to depress American markets from all-time highs.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished higher on Monday, two days after a shooter injured former President Donald Trump during a Pennsylvania campaign event. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 also reached fresh highs.
In the past, the market would sell after an attempt on someone’s life. But there are now a lot of other things at play. Such as the development of artificial intelligence and the current efforts to combat inflation, that influence stock performance.
Following President Ronald Reagan’s shooting death outside the Washington Hilton in 1981 by John Hinckley, Saturday’s incident was the first time either a presidential contender or a sitting president had been hurt in Americans. Per CFRA Research statistics, the Dow dropped 1.4% following the shooting.
According to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research, “people do respond when an unexpected event happens.” Because they’re worried, they sell first and inquire afterward.
The Dow fell 4.3% following an unsuccessful attempt on Franklin D. Roosevelt’s life in 1933, just prior to his first inauguration. Following President John F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963, the index dropped 2.9%.
According to CFRA Research, in the first trading day following ten attempted assassinations—from former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 to President George W. Bush in 2005—the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost an average of 1.1%. On Monday, the Dow closed 0.53% higher.
Contrary to previous trends, however, the stock market appears to be ignoring political unrest and violence in 2024. Despite academics’ warnings of growing dangers and attacks that are becoming more commonplace.
Relief that the former president made it through the effort in Pennsylvania and really solid investment fundamentals that haven’t been affected by an extremely turbulent campaign season are the two main factors at work today. Since the outbreak, there has been a persistent theme of the divergence between feelings on Wall Street and around American dinner tables, which both camps want to capitalize on.
Regarding Wall Street investors, “the market is primarily concentrating on profits, AI, inflation, and interest rates, all of which seem to be going in our favor,” according to Stovall. “For this reason, the market has largely disregarded what transpired.”
It’s also possible that investors are optimistic about Trump’s chances of winning. Typically erratic, the former president’s business Trump Media’s shares soared Monday.
In a letter to investors on Monday, AGF Investments’ Chief U.S. Policy Strategist Greg Valliere stated that with three and a half months before Election Day, the trump assassination attempt strengthens him and increases the likelihood of a Republican sweep of the House and Senate. Which might have an impact on the financial markets.
He stated, “We predict a movement early in 2025 to extend — and increase — the Trump tax cuts of 2017 together with pro-business, laissez-faire regulatory measures.” He stated that it is unclear if Washington will cut back on spending.
According to Valliere, “the bond market may be alarmed by more tax cuts and sustained large deficits. But the equities markets should welcome this stimulative outlook.” “And if China and other nations respond, investors may be concerned about the possibility of rising trade tariffs.”
On the other hand, President Joe Biden is running on a platform of raising taxes on large corporations and the richest citizens of the United States while maintaining lower taxes for individuals making less than $400,000.
Of course, in the weeks leading up to November, a lot may change. A robust job market, a solid economy, declining inflation. And a Federal Reserve that seems like it could soon decrease interest rates are all key ingredients for high corporate earnings.
Stock prices have already benefitted. As have regular buy-and-hold investors who have profited from a five-year boom that has seen the S&P 500 reach 85%.
Also read – Here’s what we know about the suspected Trump rally shooter
