A much-heralded ceasefire between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan has been undermined by reports of fresh violations just days after guns fell silent. Despite global welcomes—from the United Nations to Bangladesh, Qatar, Turkiye, and the United Kingdom—the truce has yet to hold firmly, with both sides trading accusations and civilians caught in the crossfire.
Renewed Clashes Shadow Ceasefire Hopes
In Indian-administered Kashmir, residents awakened to explosions and gunfire. Officials in India’s Foreign Ministry, led by Vikram Misri, accused Pakistan of “repeated violations” and ordered the Indian military to “deal strongly” with any further breaches. Islamabad’s Foreign Ministry countered that it “remains committed” to the agreement and insisted India was responsible for the new exchanges of fire.
- Fatalities: Over 60 people have perished since the cross-border escalation began after India struck alleged “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan.
- Displacement: Thousands of villagers near the Line of Control fled their homes amid escalating shelling and sniper fire.
This latest violence follows a deadly attack last month in Pahalgam, where gunmen targeted a convoy of mostly Hindu tourists, killing 26. India blamed the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, though Islamabad denies any role and has demanded an independent probe.
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Cautious Relief in the Valley
In Srinagar, journalist Umar Mehraj told Al Jazeera that there was a palpable sense of calm: “For the first time in two weeks, guns have fallen silent. People feel a glimmer of safety.” Displaced families are returning home, schools and markets are reopening, and shops that shuttered at the height of fighting are resuming business.
Yet wariness persists. According to Mehraj, “Even with hope, many remember previous broken promises. The overall mood is cautious.”
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Experts Urge Lasting Communication Channels
Tufts University professor Ayesha Jalal stressed that a ceasefire alone cannot prevent future wars. She lamented that India and Pakistan “haven’t spoken to each other since 2019.” Without direct communication to manage incidents—whether terror attacks in Kashmir or military misfires—she warned the two sides risk repeating escalations. “Two nuclear states need mechanisms to stop flare-ups from becoming full-scale wars,” Jalal said.
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Military Postures and Arms Imports
The specter of war looms large. Though India fields a larger army, both nations possess comparable nuclear missile arsenals. Their arms-import profiles reveal heavy reliance on foreign suppliers:
- India: From 2020-24, the world’s second-largest arms importer, securing most weaponry from Russia.
- Pakistan: Ranked fifth globally, purchasing primarily from China.
A miscalculation by either side could have catastrophic consequences.
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Amritsar on High Alert
Amritsar—just 30 km from the Pakistan border—remains on red alert. Local authorities urged residents to stay indoors and away from windows after Friday’s blasts. Though power was restored, the district collector warned, “We will inform you when we get the green signal. Do not panic.”
Indus Waters Treaty Still Suspended
The Indus Waters Treaty, which divides the Indus basin’s rivers between India and Pakistan, remains in abeyance. Reuters, citing government sources, reports that neither side is ready to revive the pact. India maintains its suspension after blaming Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack; Pakistan’s water ministry source noted the treaty “was not part of ceasefire discussions.” Trade embargoes and visa cancellations are also still in effect.
OIC Calls for Constructive Dialogue
The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) welcomed the truce and praised intermediary efforts. Representing 57 member states, the OIC urged the international community to “encourage Pakistan and India to engage in constructive dialogue” and to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute per UN Security Council resolutions. It warned against “military escalation in South Asia” and called for restraint to avoid regional destabilization.
Roots of the Conflict
Fighting reignited after Lashkar-e-Taiba’s deadly raid in Pahalgam. However, tensions have simmered since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government revoked Kashmir’s limited autonomy and imposed direct rule, prompting a surge in armed insurgency. Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir in full but administer separate zones, fueling repeated cross-border skirmishes.
As India and Pakistan navigate this precarious ceasefire, the coming days will test whether diplomatic efforts and global pressure can sustain the fragile peace. Vigilance, open channels of communication, and renewed commitment to treaties may prove essential to preventing the next flare-up between these longstanding rivals.
📢 Stay tuned to TNN for real-time updates on ceasefire developments, in-depth analysis of India-Pakistan relations, and expert perspectives on South Asia’s security landscape. 🚨
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