Thursday is the last full trading session before a four-day holiday weekend — and it is carrying more macro weight than any single session since the Fed’s hawkish June meeting. The June Non-Farm Payrolls report drops at 8:30 AM ET, bond markets close early at 2:00 PM ET, and US equity and bond markets are dark Friday for the Independence Day observed holiday. Whatever Thursday delivers — jobs, Fed signals, and individual stock moves — the market will be digesting it in thin, holiday-weekend conditions through July 6. That’s the setup. Here are the Stocks to Watch Tomorrow – Thursday, July 2 2026.
The Macro Setup: What Wednesday Told Us
Wednesday’s session closed out the best first half for major US equity indices in years:
| Index | H1 2026 Return |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +8.9% (best first half since 2021) |
| S&P 500 | +9.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | +12.8% |
| Russell 2000 | +21.7% (best first half since 1991) |
That is an exceptional six months by any historical measure — built on AI infrastructure investment optimism, a resilient consumer, and the Iran war’s gradual wind-down. But heading into July 2, the tape is more complicated than the headline numbers suggest. The Nasdaq closed the second quarter with an elevated valuation backdrop (Shiller CAPE at 41.6x, second-highest in 140 years), the Fed is explicitly hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh, and Wednesday’s ADP June private payroll print came in at just 98,000 — below both the 110,000 Dow Jones consensus and May’s 122,000. The ADP miss sends a mixed signal into Thursday’s NFP: it either previews softer government data (which could cut rate hike odds) or gets overridden by a government beat (which reinforces the hawkish case).
Stocks to Watch Tomorrow – Thursday July 2 2026
1. June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | 8:30 AM ET Thursday
The Report That Could Move Everything
This is the catalyst that matters most for every equity sector on Thursday, and it arrives before the open.
What the Street Expects:
| Estimate Source | June NFP Forecast | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones consensus | 115,000 | 4.3% |
| FactSet median | 100,000 | 4.3% |
| Kiplinger economist survey | 87,000 – 115,000 | 4.3% |
| BofA (Shruti Mishra) | 87,000 | 4.3% |
| Prior month (May actual) | 172,000 | 4.3% |
| 12-month average | ~113,800/month | — |
| ADP June (released Wednesday) | 98,000 | — |
FactSet noted the median June estimate of 100,000 is above the trailing 12-month average of 41,900, reflecting how much the labor market has outperformed forecasts in recent months. May’s actual print of 172,000 — which beat the 85,000 consensus by an enormous margin — showed the labor market is still creating jobs at pace. But the ADP miss at 98,000 has introduced genuine uncertainty about whether May’s strength was sustained in June.
Why This Report Is Unusually Important:
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone at the ECB Forum in Sintra on Wednesday, reiterating that he is “not in a hurry” to cut rates while simultaneously not ruling out a hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting
- The Fed’s hawkish June dot plot revision — which put potential rate hikes back on the table — was explicitly driven by confidence that employment remained resilient. A June NFP that confirms that view accelerates hike expectations
- BofA’s Shruti Mishra stated plainly that a strong report would move markets closer to BofA’s call for three hikes in 2026 — September, October, and December
- Current CME FedWatch pricing: 66.3% probability of a hold at the July 29 meeting, 33.7% probability of a hike. A strong NFP could shift that split materially
Market Scenarios for Thursday Open:
- Hot print (>130,000 jobs): Fed hike narrative reinforced → bond yields spike → tech/growth stocks under pressure → dollar strengthens → gold and crypto sell off. Industrials, financials, and energy may outperform as rate-sensitive narratives fade
- In-line print (90,000–115,000): Markets likely drift up on “Goldilocks” interpretation — not strong enough to guarantee a hike, not weak enough to trigger recession fears
- Miss (<80,000): Risk-on relief rally for equities, crypto, and gold as rate hike odds compress; growth stocks and small-caps benefit most
One Additional Complexity: US bond markets close at 2:00 PM ET on Thursday — not the normal 4:00 PM ET close. That compressed window reduces liquidity in the afternoon and may amplify price moves in both directions after the NFP release.
2. SpaceX (SPCX) | Nasdaq-100 Inclusion: July 7 — Four Trading Days Away
$7.3 Billion in Forced Passive Buying Is Coming
SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 before the market open on Monday, July 7 — the fastest index inclusion in the benchmark’s history. Thursday is the last full trading session before the holiday weekend, making it the last practical day for institutional pre-positioning ahead of that event.
Current SPCX Data:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| IPO Price | $135 (June 12, 2026) |
| First-Day Open | $160.95 |
| All-Time High | $225.64 |
| Current Price | ~$150–$155 |
| Decline from ATH | ~−31% |
| Nasdaq-100 Weighting | < 1% |
| Nasdaq-100 AUM Tracked | $800B+ (>200 products) |
| J.P. Morgan Estimated Passive Inflow | $4.3 billion (NDX only) |
| Russell Reweight Estimated Inflow | $3.0 billion |
| Total Estimated Forced Buying | $7.3 billion |
| Lock-Up Expiry | ~20% of insider shares eligible at Q2 earnings (late July/early August) |
| P/S Ratio (2026 forward) | ~54x |
| Net Loss (FY2025) | $4.9 billion |
.
The mechanics are simple: every QQQ, QQQM, and Nasdaq-100-benchmarked ETF must purchase SPCX shares before July 7’s open. That is non-discretionary, valuation-agnostic buying into a stock with a relatively thin public float. J.P. Morgan estimates $4.3 billion from Nasdaq-100 tracking products alone, plus an estimated $3 billion from Russell index reweighting for a combined $7.3 billion in forced demand.
The Trade Thesis: Index fund managers typically begin pre-positioning in the days before an inclusion date to avoid the price spike that occurs on the actual rebalance day. Thursday may see elevated SPCX buying volume for exactly that reason. Watch for a move back toward $163 resistance as the most immediate upside signal.
The Risk After the Event: NYU’s Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX at approximately $1.3 trillion vs. the current $1.7–2T implied market cap — suggesting 23–35% fundamental overvaluation even after the ATH decline. More critically, approximately 20% of insider shares become eligible for sale when Q2 2026 earnings are released in late July or early August. The lock-up expiry following a massive passive buying wave is the next major risk event for SPCX.
3. Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) | Reports Earnings July 2
The Company That Owns 4.7% of All Ethereum
Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR) is confirmed to report earnings on Thursday, July 2 — and this is one of the most watched small-cap crypto-adjacent earnings of the week.
Why it matters: Bitmine holds 5,700,040 Ethereum tokens as of its June 28 disclosure — representing approximately 4.7% of Ethereum’s entire circulating supply. That makes it the single largest disclosed corporate ETH holder and gives its earnings report an outsized influence on the ETH narrative going into H2 2026.
What the Market Is Watching:
- Treasury strategy disclosure: Will Bitmine continue accumulating ETH, hold steady, or begin monetizing its position?
- Operational revenue vs. ETH holdings: How much of the company’s value is now entirely a function of Ethereum’s price vs. its actual mining/immersion cooling business?
- ETH price sensitivity: At $1,620/ETH, its 5.7 million token position is worth approximately $9.2 billion — far exceeding the company’s market cap. Any Q3 guidance language around the ETH treasury strategy could significantly move both BMNR and ETH itself
Any announcement of additional ETH purchases, a staking yield program, or a partnership with a major ETH infrastructure provider would be a significant upward catalyst. Conversely, any language about reducing the ETH position would hit both BMNR and ETH prices simultaneously.
4. Nike (NKE) | Post-Earnings Aftermath
CEO Admitted the Brand Is “Not Living Up to Its Full Potential”
Nike’s Q4 FY2026 earnings call Tuesday evening was notable for its candor and its caution. CEO Elliott Hill acknowledged the brand was “not living up to its full potential” due to softening global sportswear traffic, particularly in China, and gross margin pressures. The stock fell approximately 4% in early Wednesday premarket and has been under pressure since.
Key Q4 FY2026 Data:
| Metric | Result | vs. Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (diluted) | — | Was guided ~$0.11–$0.13 |
| Revenue | — | Estimated ~$10.85B |
| Greater China | Worse-than-expected | Guided −20%, came in weaker |
| Gross Margin | Under pressure | −25 to −75 bps guided |
| FY2027 Recovery Language | “Slower than expected” | Below analyst hopes |
Thursday trading in NKE will depend on whether Wednesday’s session found a capitulation low or whether the sell-the-news continues after more analysts digest the FY2027 guidance language on the conference call. At $40.00 (the 52-week low), NKE is technically at a critical support level. A break below $40 on Thursday volume would be technically significant.
Key analyst to watch: JPMorgan holds a $60 target. If they or Morgan Stanley ($35 target) move their ratings Thursday morning in response to the earnings call, that will be the primary price catalyst.
5. AeroVironment (AVAV) | Post-Earnings Follow-Through
Monday’s 30%+ Gainer — Does It Hold?
AeroVironment gained more than 30% on Monday, June 29 after CEO Wahid Nawabi delivered a blockbuster earnings report and told CNBC that the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have “changed the fundamentals of war.” The defence drone sector is structurally re-rated as a result.
Thursday watch: After a 30%+ single-session gain followed by two days of consolidation, the technical setup is a classic “flag” — a tight consolidation after a sharp move that often resolves in the direction of the original breakout. If broader market conditions are constructive Thursday (NFP in-line or soft), AVAV is positioned for continuation toward its next resistance level.
Thursday Calendar — At a Glance
| Time | Event | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM ET | June NFP & Unemployment Rate | Highest impact of the session |
| 8:30 AM ET | Initial Jobless Claims | Secondary labor market signal |
| 10:00 AM ET | Factory Orders (May) | Industrial demand check |
| All day | SpaceX (SPCX) | Pre-July 7 Nasdaq-100 positioning |
| After hours | Bitmine (BMNR) | ETH treasury strategy |
| 2:00 PM ET | Bond market early close | Thin afternoon equity trading |
| 4:00 PM ET | Markets close | Four-day weekend begins |
| Friday July 3 | US markets CLOSED | Independence Day observed |
The H2 2026 Framing
After the strongest first half in years, Thursday’s jobs report is the first major test of whether H2 2026 can sustain momentum. JPMorgan raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,800 this week, implying another 5% upside from current levels. But that bull case depends on inflation staying contained enough to keep three rate hikes a tail scenario, not a base case. Thursday’s NFP is the first piece of that July puzzle.
Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss. Economic forecasts and analyst price targets cited herein are sourced from third-party institutions and do not guarantee outcomes. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.
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