Stocks to Watch Tomorrow — July 23, 2026 —–>> Wednesday’s session ended in a fog of conflicting signals. Super Micro Computer exploded 20%+ on $60 billion in new orders — but IBM slid 2.15%, Salesforce dropped 4%, and Alphabet tanked nearly 5% in after-hours after raising its full-year capex forecast to $180–190 billion despite strong cloud revenue. Tesla missed earnings estimates and IBM lowered its annual sales outlook. Oil hit $94.07/barrel — a one-month high — as US Central Command carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.
Thursday is going to be a battlefield session. Here are the 10 names that will define it.
1. Lockheed Martin (LMT) | Earnings Before Market Open
The Iran War Earnings Play
Thursday is the ideal earnings date for Lockheed Martin — and not just because of the underlying fundamentals.
The Iran war is reshaping defence contract cycles in real time. The US conducted its 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran on July 22, 2026, as President Trump declared the ceasefire “over.” Oil extended its recent rally on supply disruption fears, with Brent crude settling at $94.07/barrel — its highest level in over a month.
What to Watch:
- Q2 EPS estimate: N/A confirmed; strong beat expected given accelerated DoD procurement
- F-35 programme update: Production delivery numbers and any contract acceleration commentary
- Missiles and fire control: The highest-margin segment; HIMARS and Javelin resupply contracts are ongoing
- Full-year guidance uplift: If management raises FY2026 guidance, stock moves sharply higher
- Key stat: Lockheed’s backlog entering Q2 was approximately $175 billion — one of the largest in defence history
Why Thursday Is the Catalytic Moment: Every quarter since the Iran conflict escalated in February 2026, Lockheed has raised guidance. Markets will be looking for the same pattern. A raised guidance print in the context of active airstrikes is the clearest possible fundamental signal for the stock.
2. RTX Corporation (RTX) | Earnings Before Market Open
The Other Defence Titan
RTX (Raytheon Technologies) is the missile systems and avionics company — the manufacturer of the Patriot missile defence system, AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and Tomahawk cruise missiles. All three are at the centre of the Iran theatre.
RTX reports Thursday, July 23, before the market opens.
Key Metrics:
- Segments: Collins Aerospace (aircraft systems) + Pratt & Whitney (jet engines) + Raytheon (missiles, sensors)
- Tomahawk demand surge: US forces have expended significant cruise missile inventory in 11 nights of Iran strikes; replenishment orders are the near-term catalyst
- Patriot upgrade contracts: European allies continue to accelerate defence spending post-Russia/Ukraine and now Iran — RTX benefits across all categories
- Estimate: Analysts expect strong Q2 EPS on elevated defence order volume
- Stock context: RTX has been one of the best-performing Dow components in H1 2026, up double-digits YTD
RTX and Lockheed together define Thursday’s defence narrative. If both beat and raise — which is the base case given the operational context — the defence sector has another leg higher heading into Friday.
3. Blackstone (BX) | Earnings Before Market Open | EPS Est: $1.32–$1.34
Private Equity Earnings in a Rising-Rate World
Blackstone reports Q2 2026 earnings Thursday morning, with analysts expecting EPS of $1.32–$1.34 and revenue of $3.35–3.42 billion.
The Setup:
- Q1 2026 EPS: $1.36 — beat the $1.34 consensus by $0.02; revenue of $3.43B (+10% YoY)
- Q1 net margin: 20.67% | Q1 ROE: 22.86%
- P/E ratio: 31.31x — premium valuation for the alternative asset management space
- GF Score: 68/100 — solid overall, with long-term return potential
Why It Matters More Than Usual:
- Oil at $94/barrel and rising Iran tensions are directly impacting Blackstone’s energy and infrastructure portfolio valuations
- Real estate markets have stabilised after a difficult 2025 — any positive commentary on BREIT (Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust) redemptions would be a major positive signal
- AI data centre investments: Blackstone has been among the most active real estate investors in AI data centre sites globally — earnings call commentary on the AI real estate pipeline will be closely watched
Insider activity shows net sales of $3.8 million over three months — cautious, but not alarming given the scale of Blackstone’s institutional insider ownership.
4. Intel (INTC) | Earnings Thursday
The Most Watched Turnaround Story in Semiconductors
Intel has been in turnaround mode under CEO Lip-Bu Tan — who took over in March 2025 and restructured aggressively — and Thursday’s Q2 2026 report is the most important earnings moment in the company’s recovery narrative.
What the Market Needs to See:
- Foundry progress: Intel Foundry’s 18A process node has been critical; any commentary on customer tape-outs or volume agreements moves the stock
- Data centre AI: Intel’s Gaudi 3 AI accelerator has been competing for share against Nvidia; Q2 revenue from this segment indicates whether the product is gaining traction
- PC client: Intel still generates most revenue from PC chips; back-to-school season starts in Q3 — guidance on client recovery matters
- Gross margin: Intel’s gross margin has been under pressure during its manufacturing transition; any improvement toward the mid-40s% range would signal the turnaround is real
Context: After Wednesday’s IBM selloff (-2.15%) and ongoing software/enterprise concerns, Intel faces a skeptical tape. Beat-and-raise on foundry is the only scenario that produces a strong single-session gain.
5. T-Mobile US (TMUS) | Earnings Thursday
Recovering From June 29’s Telecom Rout — and Then Some
T-Mobile enters Thursday’s earnings with momentum. Following the June 29 session, where TMUS fell 4.77% on Verizon contagion fears and SpaceX mobile competition concerns, the stock has been rebuilding.
AT&T delivered adjusted EPS of $0.65 on Wednesday, topping the FactSet consensus of $0.59 — rising 2.9% despite “mixed” results overall. That AT&T beat sets a constructive precedent for TMUS, which historically outperforms AT&T on customer metrics.
Key Metrics to Watch:
- Postpaid phone net adds: T-Mobile has led the industry in postpaid phone net additions for 4+ consecutive years
- Home broadband: T-Mobile’s Fixed Wireless Access business is the fastest-growing broadband provider in the US; net add numbers are the key growth metric
- SpaceX mobile partnership: The direct-to-cell Starlink partnership is expanding — any update on market reception to the combined service matters significantly
- ARPU guidance: Average revenue per user is the key monetisation signal for a carrier with high subscriber growth
The Contrarian Case: T-Mobile’s June selloff was driven by sector narrative, not fundamentals. A clean Q2 beat with raised guidance Thursday could recover the entire June decline in a single session.
6. Comcast (CMCSA) | Earnings Thursday
First Earnings Since the NBCUniversal Spinoff Announcement
This is the earnings context nobody is missing. Comcast reports Q2 2026 Thursday — its first quarterly update since announcing the historic NBCUniversal and Sky spinoff on June 29, 2026. The stock jumped 22% on that announcement day. Thursday is the first chance for management to provide quantitative detail.
What Investors Want to Hear:
- Timeline for spinoff completion: Management had said “approximately 12 months” — any acceleration or delay matters
- Separation structure and tax mechanics: Any new details on the tax-free distribution ratio and valuation of each resulting entity
- Broadband subscriber trends: This is the “New Comcast” core business — net adds and ARPU determine the value of the standalone connectivity company
- Peacock subscriber and monetisation metrics: The streaming platform is the most valuable component of the “New NBCUniversal” entity; subscriber growth and ARPU will help analysts value the spinoff
7. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | Earnings Thursday
Copper in the AI Age
Freeport-McMoRan is the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer — and copper is having a moment.
Why This Earnings Report Matters Beyond Mining:
- AI data centres are among the most copper-intensive construction projects ever built. Each GPU cluster requires vast amounts of copper wiring, busbars, and cooling infrastructure
- US-China trade tensions continue to affect global copper supply chains, keeping prices elevated
- Goldman Sachs projects data centre construction requiring $7 trillion in total investment by 2030 — most of which flows through copper demand
Key Data to Watch: Copper spot price: recently elevated above $4.50/lb. FCX’s average realised copper price and production costs are the two numbers that determine EPS. Any commentary on Chinese demand recovery (the single largest copper demand driver globally) will be the most market-moving commentary on the call.
8. Honeywell International (HON) | Earnings Thursday
The Industrial AI Play Nobody Talks About
Honeywell has quietly positioned itself as one of the most direct industrial beneficiaries of the AI data centre build-out — through its HVAC, automation, and energy management systems that are increasingly specified in data centre RFPs.
GE Vernova raised its full-year guidance Wednesday despite a 7% single-session decline — suggesting the industrial sector is delivering results but facing valuation compression from elevated expectations. Honeywell faces the same dynamic: strong fundamentals, but rich expectations.
Specific Watch Points:
- Data centre HVAC backlog: How much of its commercial building services revenue is now tied to AI data centre cooling contracts
- Performance Materials and Technologies: Solstice refrigerants used in data centre cooling — growing demand signal
- Aerospace segment: Recovery in commercial aerospace post-pandemic has been a strong earnings driver
9. Alphabet (GOOGL) | After-Hours Fallout — Thursday Pre-Market Reaction
The -5% After-Hours Move That Shapes the Open
Although Alphabet reported Wednesday evening, the stock’s ~5% after-hours decline following its Q2 earnings will define Thursday’s pre-market sentiment across the entire tech complex.
The paradox: Alphabet’s Q2 was operationally excellent.
- Google Cloud: +63.4% YoY, margin inflected to 32.9%
- Search: solid
- YouTube: strong
What spooked markets: Alphabet raised its full-year 2026 capex forecast to $180–190 billion — already the highest single-year capex in corporate history — suggesting the spending cycle has further to run even as investors were hoping for signs of capex discipline. Every hyperscaler that reports after Alphabet will face the same question: are you still spending this much?
Thursday implication: Tech stocks broadly under pressure at the open. Companies reporting strong results with disciplined capex commentary will dramatically outperform.
10. Flash PMI Data (July) | 9:45 AM ET — The Macro Wildcard
Manufacturing and Services Numbers That Could Move Everything
Thursday’s economic calendar: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI July preliminary (expected 54.5, prior 53.9); S&P Global US Services PMI July preliminary (expected 51.5, prior 51.2); S&P Global US Composite PMI (expected 51.6, prior 51.9); New home sales June (expected +4%, prior -7.3%)
The manufacturing PMI reading of 54.5 would be one of the strongest readings of the year — confirming the economic resilience that keeps the Fed hawkish. A beat here combined with rising oil prices and the Alphabet capex surprise would validate the “rates higher for longer” narrative, pressuring rate-sensitive growth stocks.
Conversely, a PMI miss — particularly in services — could provide the most meaningful dovish signal since the weak June ADP print. Watch how bond yields move on the 9:45 AM release before making any tactical decisions on rate-sensitive positions.
Thursday Pre-Market Watch — At a Glance
| Ticker | Report Time | Catalyst | Key Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | Before open | Iran war + defence cycle | Guidance raise on missiles/F-35 |
| RTX | Before open | Iran war + Tomahawk/Patriot demand | EPS beat + backlog commentary |
| BX | Before open | Private equity earnings + AI real estate | EPS $1.32-$1.34; BREIT redemptions |
| INTC | TBD | Semiconductor turnaround | 18A foundry update; Gaudi 3 revenue |
| TMUS | TBD | Post-June telecom recovery | Postpaid phone net adds; FWA growth |
| CMCSA | Before open | First spinoff-era earnings | Broadband net adds; Peacock ARPU |
| FCX | Before open | Copper + AI data centre demand | Realised copper price; production |
| HON | Before open | Industrial AI + aerospace recovery | Data centre HVAC backlog |
| GOOGL | After-hours fallout | Capex overshoot spooked markets | Pre-market gap assessment |
| PMI Data | 9:45 AM ET | Macro wildcard | 54.5 expected — miss or beat |
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Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss. Earnings estimates and economic forecasts cited herein are those of third-party institutions and do not guarantee future results. After-hours price movements referenced are as of the close of Wednesday July 22, 2026. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.
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