The FOMC minutes from July’s meeting just dropped this afternoon — confirming the rate vote was 9 to 3, with three members openly pushing for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Wells Fargo economists summed up the takeaway: “Members are willing to be patient for now… but the bar is low for future rate hikes if inflation does not slow further.” Markets are digesting that before Thursday’s blockbuster slate.

Thursday August 20 is the retail sector’s most important earnings day of the year. Walmart reports before the open and could swing $41.4 billion in market value in a single session. Deere follows with $9.64 billion at stake. Ross Stores closes the night with a 6.94% implied move. And between those marquee names, lesser-known companies — ScanSource with a stunning 12.84% implied move on a $136M market cap swing, OSI Systems with its airport security empire, and Flowers Foods at a 31.6% YTD underperformer seeking a catalyst — deserve just as much attention.

Here is the complete data-driven playbook for August 20, with every key metric and technical level.

The August 20 Context: What Happened Wednesday That Matters Thursday

Full August 20, 2026 Earnings Calendar at a Glance

BMO = Before Market Open | AMC = After Market Close

#1 — WMT (Walmart Inc.) | Pre-Market | $186.62B Revenue Call — The Day’s Defining Event

EPS Estimate: $0.73–$0.74 | Revenue Estimate: $186.62B | Implied Move: 4.50% | Value at Stake: $41.4B

Walmart is the morning’s unavoidable centerpiece — and the tension around this report is real.

The Setup: A Market Divided

Oppenheimer’s specific concern: Analysts expect U.S. comparable-store sales of 3% — below the Street’s 3.8% consensus. For a company with $186+ billion in quarterly revenue, a 0.8-point miss on comps can mean billions in revenue shortfall.

The Walmart macro read: If Walmart meets or beats, it signals that the U.S. consumer is still spending despite slowing job growth. If Walmart misses or guides conservatively, it confirms the J-shaped consumer spending divergence (wealthy consumers spending freely, middle-income households pulling back) that has characterized 2026 and hurt companies like On Running (-20%) and Nike (near 52-week lows).

Key Metrics Wall Street Will Dissect:

• U.S. comparable-store sales (target: 3.8%; concern: actual closer to 3%)
• E-commerce growth (Walmart.com has been a consistent double-digit grower)
• Sam’s Club membership and comp growth (premium indicator)
• Grocery pricing power vs. private label penetration
• FY2026 full-year guidance update — the market will reprice based on any revision

WMT Support & Resistance Levels:

#2 — DE (Deere & Company) | Pre-Market | $9.64B at Stake — Agriculture Cycle at an Inflection Point

EPS Estimate: $4.71–$4.73 | Revenue Estimate: $10.75B | Implied Move: 5.83% | Value at Stake: $9.64B

Deere’s Q3 FY2026 report is the definitive read on the global agricultural equipment cycle — and the setup is complex.

The Deere Setup:

The Year-Over-Year Revenue Decline Is the Story: Deere is expected to report revenue of $10.75B vs. $12.02B last year — a -10.6% YoY decline. This is not a surprise; Deere guided for this decline as agricultural equipment demand normalizes from the post-COVID boom years. Farm equipment purchase cycles are multi-year; after a period of aggressive capex by farmers, order books thin out.

The 2026 tailwind: Grain prices have been elevated by the Middle East conflict (rerouted shipping, fertilizer supply disruptions) — which ultimately benefits farmer incomes, which leads to equipment purchases. This dynamic could produce a better-than-expected order book outlook on the call.

What to watch on the call:

• Order backlog vs. expectations
• Precision agriculture (AI-powered) product revenue growth
• Construction equipment demand commentary
• FY2026 net income guidance

DE Support & Resistance Levels:

#3 — SCSC (ScanSource Inc.) | Pre-Market | 12.84% Implied Move — Thursday’s Highest-Conviction Small-Cap Catalyst

EPS Estimate: $1.11–$1.14 | Revenue Estimate: $814.35M | Implied Move: 12.84% | Market Cap: ~$1.05B

This is Thursday’s most compelling under-the-radar setup. ScanSource is a technology products distributor — supplying barcode scanners, mobile computing, payment terminals, networking gear, and security systems to resellers. It’s not a glamorous business. But its Q4 FY2026 earnings on August 20 come with a 12.84% options-implied move and a $136 million swing in market value — extraordinary for a $1 billion company.

The SCSC Setup: A Track Record of Beats

Why SCSC deserves serious attention Thursday:

1. Consistent beat history: ScanSource beat Q3 by +2.17%; this is a company with a management team that under-promises
2. The AI hardware distribution angle: Barcode scanners, mobile computing, and networking equipment are demand beneficiaries of the AI warehouse automation and logistics tracking boom — companies automating warehouses are buying exactly what ScanSource distributes
3. Low leverage (0.11x D/E): Balance sheet risk is minimal — whatever happens in the quarter, the company isn’t at risk of financial distress
4. Q3 momentum: $33M in Q3 share repurchases confirms management sees value; $119M YTD operating cash flow

The risk: The 12.84% implied move cuts both ways. If Q4 misses or FY2027 guidance disappoints, the stock could fall toward $45.

SCSC Support & Resistance Levels:

#4 — ROST (Ross Stores Inc.) | After Close | 6.94% Implied Move — Off-Price Retail’s Verdict on the Consumer

EPS Estimate: $1.50–$1.82 | Revenue Estimate: $5.98B | Implied Move: 6.94% | Value at Stake: $5.4B

Ross Stores closes Thursday’s session — and its after-hours reaction will directly preview the consumer health narrative heading into Friday.

The ROST Setup:

The off-price tailwind in 2026: With consumers facing slowing wage growth (July payroll data showed wages at their weakest YoY pace in nearly 5 years), trading down to off-price retail is exactly the behavior Ross Stores benefits from. When Nike struggles at $40/share and premium brands cut prices, Ross’s buyer team acquires that excess inventory at significant discounts and sells it to consumers seeking value. This dynamic was the defining consumer theme of 2022-2023 and appears to be re-emerging in 2026.

Ross vs. Walmart (same evening read): If Walmart’s morning report shows consumer weakness, Ross’s evening report should theoretically be positive (consumers trading down). But if consumer confidence is broadly deteriorating, even off-price can see traffic softness. This tension makes ROST’s after-hours call must-watch content.

ROST Support & Resistance Levels:

#5 — BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.) | Pre-Market | $2.12 EPS — China’s AI Cloud Under the Microscope

EPS Estimate: $2.12 | Timing: Before Open

Alibaba’s Q1 FY2027 (fiscal year ending March 2027) results will be among the most-watched China tech reports of the year, providing a direct read on:

• AI cloud spending in China — Alibaba Cloud is China’s largest cloud provider; its revenue growth rate is the primary metric
• Core commerce demand — Taobao and Tmall performance reflects Chinese consumer health
• U.S.-China trade dynamics — Any tariff commentary or regulatory update
• International segment — AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol global performance

BABA Setup Data:

BABA Support & Resistance Levels:

#6 — DE (Deere & Company): Already Covered | Next — AAP (Advance Auto Parts) | Pre-Market — The Turnaround Test

EPS Estimate: $0.55 | Timing: Before Open

AAP Setup:

The consumer auto parts connection: With 30-year mortgage rates at 6.55% and home transactions minimal, Americans are holding onto their cars longer — which is structurally positive for auto parts demand. The question is whether AAP is capturing its share of that demand.

AAP Support & Resistance Levels:

#7 — OSIS (OSI Systems Inc.) | After Close | Security Tech That Benefits From a Less Stable World

EPS Estimate: $2.85 | Timing: After Market Close

OSI Systems makes security inspection systems — the airport X-ray machines, port cargo scanners, and government security screening equipment that every nation with a security mandate needs.

OSIS Setup:

Why OSIS is interesting Thursday: Government security spending has a long budget lag — money appropriated in 2025 for airport upgrades is being received and deployed by OSI Systems in 2026. The escalation of global security concerns through the Middle East conflict has likely accelerated specific government procurement, which would show up in Q4 results.

OSIS Support & Resistance Levels:

#8 — FUTU (Futu Holdings Ltd.) | Pre-Market | Chinese Online Brokerage — The Emerging Market Investor

EPS Estimate: $1.15 | Timing: Before Open

FUTU Setup:

FUTU Support & Resistance Levels:

#9 — LYTS (LSI Industries Inc.) | Pre-Market | Micro-Cap LED Lighting — The Lowest-Float Name on Thursday’s List

EPS Estimate: $0.26 | Timing: Before Open | Market Cap: ~$250M

LYTS Setup:

Why LYTS matters on a big earnings day: With a market cap of only ~$250M and thin float, even modest positive or negative earnings news can create a 10-25%+ single-session move. The AI data center buildout has created demand for LED lighting systems in industrial facilities — not glamorous, but real.

LYTS Support & Resistance Levels:

#10 — FLO (Flowers Foods Inc.) | After Close | The 31.6% YTD Loser Looking for a Floor

EPS Estimate: $0.34 | Timing: After Market Close | YTD: -31.6%

FLO Setup:

The FLO contrarian case: At 54% below its 52-week high and -31.6% YTD, Flowers Foods is pricing in significant pessimism. Its brands (Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread) maintain strong consumer recognition. A surprise beat or any positive volume commentary could create a sharp short-covering bounce in a stock with elevated short interest relative to its daily volume.

FLO Support & Resistance Levels:

The Week’s Broader Picture: Fed, Consumer, and the AI Spending Debate

Thursday August 20 sits at the intersection of two major narratives dominating markets:

Narrative 1 — The Consumer Resilience Test After July lost 23,000 jobs and wage growth hit a multi-year low, Thursday’s Walmart and Ross Stores reports are the definitive read on whether the U.S. consumer is still spending. If Walmart beats and guides conservatively but positively, the narrative holds. If both miss, recession fears could re-emerge.

Narrative 2 — The AI CapEx Vindication Goldman Sachs ($1 trillion AI CapEx globally in 2026), JPMorgan ($697 billion U.S.), and Bank of America ($1.2 trillion path to 2027) are all projecting extraordinary AI infrastructure spending. But the bottleneck, per Yahoo Finance’s analysis, “isn’t cash — it’s chip shortages and skilled labor.” This continues to benefit companies supplying the physical infrastructure layer: ScanSource (tech distribution), OSI Systems (secure facilities), and even LYTS (LED lighting for data centers).

The FOMC Fault Line: Wednesday’s minutes confirmed a 9-3 vote with three hawkish dissenters. If Thursday’s retail results confirm consumer strength, September rate hike probability could jump back toward 70%+. If Walmart misses or guides weak, the September hold narrative strengthens, bonds rally, and growth stocks catch a bid.

Thursday’s Watchlist Priority Summary

Follow TNN for daily stock market news and financial news today.

Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss. Support and resistance levels are technical analysis estimates that do not guarantee future price performance. Earnings estimates referenced are Wall Street consensus figures that may change before the market open. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.

For live market coverage Thursday, visit TruthsandNews.com | WMT earnings at Walmart IR | Earnings calendar at Earnings Whispers | SCSC results at ScanSource IR | FOMC minutes analysis at Federal Reserve | Track all Thursday movers at Barchart Pre-Market

About The Author

Kasia Davis

See author's posts