Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time in years on Thursday as the U.S.-Iran war stretched into its seventh month, dragging the Dow down for a fourth straight session — but the real fireworks are set to continue into Friday. Oracle and Adobe both dropped earnings after Thursday’s close, a long-rumored chip merger suddenly looked very real, and Friday’s Consumer Price Index report could be the single biggest swing factor for markets heading into next week’s Fed meeting. Here are the 10 stocks positioned to move the most when trading resumes.

What’s Setting Up Friday’s Session:

With WTI up 78.5% year-to-date since the Iran war began at the end of February, Friday’s CPI print carries outsized weight — a hot number could cement fears of a delayed rate cut, while any moderation would offer relief across rate-sensitive sectors.

1. Oracle (ORCL) | Last Close $161.75 | Reported After Thursday’s Close

A One-Year Anniversary Rematch With $47.8 Billion on the Line

Oracle reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after Thursday’s close, with options markets pricing in a 10.58% move — roughly $47.8 billion of market value at stake for a stock that surged 35.95% on this exact date one year ago before giving back nearly all of that gain over the following twelve months.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: The setup mirrors a familiar pattern: Oracle sold off after two of its past three earnings reports, including a 10.83% single-day drop following a 32.43% EPS beat, because the market has grown skeptical about whether the company’s massive AI-driven capital spending plans will generate adequate returns. Oracle also disclosed plans to raise $40 billion through debt and equity financing to fund its cloud buildout.

Bull Case: Shares already rallied 8.83% in the week heading into the report, and a credible “strong print” — EPS above consensus, accelerating cloud growth, and reassurance on capital spending returns — could produce a +10% to +15% move given how beaten-down the stock has become in 2026.

Bear Case: Oracle’s history shows that headline beats mean little if investors remain worried about financing, dilution, or returns on its aggressive infrastructure spending — the exact dynamic that triggered double-digit drops after two of the past three reports.

Technical Levels: Support at $146–$154 (the bear-case reaction zone cited by analysts); resistance at $170–$178, with a major upside surprise potentially pushing shares toward $178–$186.

Forecast: Friday’s opening session will reveal which scenario played out overnight — given the binary setup and the stock’s history of violent post-earnings swings in both directions, expect Oracle to be one of the most actively traded names of the day.

Why This Matters: Oracle’s reaction will be read as a referendum on whether the broader market is still willing to fund massive AI infrastructure capex with patience, or whether the “spend now, profit later” thesis has worn out its welcome.

2. Adobe (ADBE) | Last Close ~$522.30 | Reported After Thursday’s Close

A Cooling Bounce Meets a Make-or-Break AI Monetization Story

Adobe reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after Thursday’s close, with options pricing in a 7.24% move — about $7.4 billion of market value at stake — in a report management’s own guidance left little room to disappoint.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Adobe’s own prior guidance sits at the high end of what analysts are modeling, meaning consensus estimates leave the company almost no room for a soft quarter — a setup complicated by a stock that’s traded 4.1% above its 200-day moving average after the 50-day crossed above it in June, a technically constructive signal walking into a high-stakes print. CEO Shantanu Narayen’s press release touted “record Q3 results” driven by AI innovation across Adobe’s creativity, productivity, and customer experience platforms.

Bull Case: Adobe beat its own EPS estimate by 2.4% last quarter and posted revenue of $6.62 billion against a $6.46 billion consensus, and continued AI monetization progress in Firefly and Creative Cloud could finally validate the “AI monetization story bigger than the bear case” thesis some analysts have championed.

Bear Case: Wide analyst target dispersion reflects genuine disagreement about whether Adobe’s AI tools are driving incremental revenue or merely defending its existing creative-software franchise from disruption — a distinction investors will be listening for closely on tonight’s call.

Technical Levels: Support at the 200-day moving average zone; resistance at the 52-week high area, roughly 16% above current levels.

Forecast: With a 7%+ options-implied move now resolved by the time markets open Friday, expect Adobe’s reaction to set the tone for the broader enterprise software and creative-AI trade heading into the weekend.

Why This Matters: Adobe’s results are a critical test of whether legacy creative-software incumbents can successfully monetize generative AI features — a question with direct read-through for Figma, Canva’s private-market valuation debates, and the broader creative-tools sector.

3. Kroger (KR) | Reports Before Friday’s Open

The Week’s Lone Major Earnings Report Closes Out a Busy Stretch

Kroger is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results before Friday’s opening bell, marking the only noteworthy earnings release of the day after a week dominated by AI infrastructure and retail prints.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Kroger’s report lands on the same morning as the August CPI release, creating an unusually direct real-time comparison between what government inflation data shows and what America’s largest traditional grocery chain says about its own pricing power and consumer demand trends.

Bull Case: As a defensive consumer staples name, Kroger tends to hold up better than discretionary retailers during periods of macro uncertainty, and continued grocery inflation could support nominal revenue growth even if unit volumes stay soft.

Bear Case: Elevated food inflation cuts both ways — if consumers are trading down to private label or reducing basket sizes to cope with higher prices, Kroger’s margins could show the strain even as top-line revenue holds up.

Technical Levels: As a lower-volatility consumer staples name, Kroger’s technical range tends to be narrower than growth stocks; watch for reaction relative to recent trading levels heading into the print.

Forecast: Kroger’s commentary on private-label demand and promotional intensity will offer one of the clearest real-world reads on consumer financial health available this week, especially paired against the same morning’s CPI data.

Why This Matters: As the week’s final and only major earnings report, Kroger’s print will be parsed heavily for grocery-inflation and consumer-resilience signals right alongside the government’s own CPI numbers.

4. Macy’s (M) | Last Close $21.51 | Beat-and-Raised, But Fell

A Credibility Test the Market Hasn’t Resolved Yet

Macy’s reported second-quarter results Thursday morning that beat across the board — adjusted EPS of $0.63 versus a $0.35 estimate, and revenue of $4.9 billion versus $4.78 billion expected — yet shares still closed down for the session after falling in premarket trading despite the strong numbers.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Macy’s guidance raise notably includes a $116 million benefit from tariff refunds received so far, meaning investors are parsing how much of the raised outlook reflects genuine underlying momentum versus a one-time accounting tailwind — a distinction that likely explains the muted, even negative, initial stock reaction despite the headline beat.

Bull Case: Namesake Macy’s comparable sales grew 1.1% while Bloomingdale’s surged 11.3%, showing genuine multi-banner strength, and a raised full-year outlook — even with the tariff-refund caveat — still represents real upward revision to profitability expectations.

Bear Case: A stock falling on a clear beat-and-raise is a warning sign that the market suspects the improved guidance leans too heavily on non-recurring items rather than structural margin improvement.

Technical Levels: Support at $20 (psychological level, near recent lows); resistance at $23–$24, the pre-earnings trading range.

Forecast: Watch Friday’s session closely — if Macy’s stabilizes and reclaims ground lost Thursday, it would suggest the market is coming around to crediting the underlying comparable-sales strength rather than dismissing the entire report as tariff-refund noise.

Why This Matters: Macy’s muted reaction to genuinely good numbers is part of a broader pattern this earnings season of investors demanding “clean” beats without asterisks — a bar that’s proven difficult even for companies posting real operational improvement.

5. AeroVironment (AVAV) | Last Close $154.15 | Up 9.48% Thursday

A Post-Earnings Pop With Room to Keep Running

AeroVironment shares popped 9.48% Thursday to $154.15 after the defense-tech company announced record revenue and a strong order backlog in its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results, extending the stock’s recovery after a brutal several-month stretch.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Coming just days after landing the first-ever production contract for a high-energy laser weapon system in U.S. history, AeroVironment’s earnings beat and record backlog gave the market its first hard confirmation that the E-HEL contract and broader defense-tech demand are translating into actual financial results, not just headline-generating deal announcements.

Bull Case: A single-day 9.48% pop on record revenue and a growing backlog, combined with a Buy-heavy analyst base and a stock still trading 63% below its 52-week high, suggests meaningful further recovery potential if Friday’s session confirms the move wasn’t a one-day fluke.

Bear Case: AVAV remains down substantially from its highs amid an ongoing securities class-action lawsuit, and defense-tech names can reverse sharply on any de-escalation headlines out of the Middle East, given how much of the current demand narrative is tied to the ongoing conflict.

Technical Levels: Support at $145–$148 (Thursday’s pre-pop levels); resistance at $170, then the 50-day moving average zone further above.

Forecast: Follow-through buying on Friday — rather than a fade back toward pre-earnings levels — would be the clearest signal that Thursday’s rally reflects a genuine fundamental re-rating rather than short-covering.

Why This Matters: AeroVironment’s pop is an important test of whether defense-tech names can sustain rallies on fundamentals even as broader market sentiment stays cautious amid oil-driven volatility.

6. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) | Last Close $84.24 | Up ~10% Thursday

Merger Arbitrage Traders Bet the Qorvo Deal Is Finally Clearing

Skyworks Solutions surged roughly 10% to $84.24 Thursday — even as the broader chip sector fell — after CEO Phil Brace indicated China’s regulatory review (SAMR) of its pending Qorvo merger has entered its final phase, targeting a year-end close.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: No formal SAMR decision or company disclosure was published to directly account for Thursday’s specific move — the rally appears to be merger-arbitrage repricing built on weeks of steadily improving closing odds, following CEO Brace’s July 28 comments that management is “optimistic we can close within the calendar year.”

Bull Case: A rally that isolates itself from a broadly declining chip sector, paired with rising Qorvo shares moving in lockstep, is the clearest signature of genuine merger-completion odds improving — with AAPL as the largest shared customer post-merger, the combined entity would have substantial negotiating leverage.

Bear Case: Without a confirmed regulatory decision, Thursday’s move remains speculative — any negative SAMR headline or delay disclosure could quickly reverse both stocks’ gains, and merger-arb spreads are notoriously vulnerable to sudden reversals.

Technical Levels: Support at $75–$78 (pre-rally levels); resistance at $85–$90, an area last tested before the deal announcement.

Forecast: Watch for 8-K filings or exchange-offer amendments tied to Qorvo’s senior notes in the coming days — the next confirmed data point that could either validate or deflate Thursday’s merger-arb enthusiasm.

Why This Matters: Skyworks and Qorvo’s paired rally is a live case study in how merger arbitrage repricing can produce outsized single-day moves well before any official confirmation — a dynamic worth watching closely into the deal’s targeted year-end close.

7. Qorvo (QRVO) | Last Close $111.49–$112.65 | Up 6–7% Thursday

The Other Half of the RF Chip Merger Story

Qorvo shares climbed alongside Skyworks Thursday, gaining as much as 7.04% to $112.65 as the same merger-arbitrage dynamics propelling its acquirer played out in tandem.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Qorvo’s senior notes are subject to an ongoing exchange offer tied directly to the Skyworks merger, meaning any regulatory progress that increases deal-closing odds has a direct, mechanical effect on how the market prices both the equity and the outstanding debt simultaneously.

Bull Case: As the acquisition target, Qorvo shareholders benefit directly from increasing deal-certainty odds, and a year-end close target — if it holds — would resolve months of merger-arbitrage uncertainty in shareholders’ favor.

Bear Case: Target-company shares in pending mergers carry binary regulatory risk — any SAMR delay or rejection would likely hit Qorvo harder than Skyworks given the deal-dependent nature of the current share price premium.

Technical Levels: Support at $105 (pre-rally consolidation zone); resistance at $115–$120.

Forecast: Qorvo’s stock will likely continue trading in lockstep with Skyworks until a formal regulatory announcement breaks the current speculative repricing pattern.

Why This Matters: As the acquisition target, Qorvo is the more direct read on the market’s real-time assessment of deal-completion odds — a genuine bellwether for the broader semiconductor M&A environment heading into year-end.

8. Tenon Medical (TNON) | Up as Much as 95% Thursday

A Microcap Med-Tech Name Erases Its Own Dilution Overhang

Tenon Medical shares exploded as much as 95% to $4.77 Thursday after the medical device company announced the full early repayment of roughly $5.16 million in senior convertible notes — originally scheduled to mature September 11 — eliminating a major dilution overhang for shareholders.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: By retiring the debt in cash ahead of the notes’ original September 11 maturity, Tenon eliminated the risk that noteholders could convert the debt into common stock at a discount to prevailing market prices — a classic small-cap dilution threat. The move follows a Q2 report showing revenue of $1.28 million, up 127% year-over-year, with gross margin expanding to 64% on growing surgical adoption of the company’s Catamaran SI Joint Fusion System.

Bull Case: Removing the dilution overhang, combined with genuinely accelerating revenue growth (127% YoY) and expanding gross margins, gives the sole covering analyst’s $10 price target — implying over 300% upside — a real fundamental foundation beyond just the debt news.

Bear Case: A stock down 93% year-to-date and trading near its 52-week low even after a 95% single-day pop reflects deep, likely justified skepticism about the company’s ability to scale profitably, and the more-than-tenfold spike in trading volume suggests speculative rather than fundamentals-driven buying.

Technical Levels: Support at the 52-week low of $2.40; resistance at $5, then the $10 analyst target — an enormous gap reflecting the stock’s extreme volatility and thin analyst coverage.

Forecast: With the dilution risk removed and Nasdaq minimum bid-price compliance regained, Tenon’s next test is whether Friday’s session holds onto Thursday’s gains or gives them back as speculative volume fades.

Why This Matters: Tenon’s explosive move is a textbook example of how removing a discrete balance-sheet risk can trigger outsized reactions in thinly-traded microcap stocks — a pattern worth watching for continuation or reversal into Friday’s session.

9. Elevance Health (ELV) | Last Close $416.54 | Up 5.8% Thursday

A Mid-Quarter Guidance Reaffirmation Beats Expectations to the Punch

Elevance Health shares surged 5.8% Thursday to $418.21 after the health insurer issued a Regulation FD disclosure reaffirming full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of at least $27.00 per diluted share, well ahead of its next scheduled earnings release.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: At the Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference, management signaled that third-quarter adjusted EPS is tracking ahead of its previously issued outlook, citing favorable benefit-expense performance, while also reaffirming a 2026 operating cash flow target of at least $6 billion and a commitment to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.

Bull Case: An unscheduled, voluntary guidance reaffirmation ahead of the next earnings date is a genuinely bullish signal — companies rarely proactively communicate positive tracking data unless they’re confident it will hold, and the stock overrode both a soft broader tape and its own recent three-day losing streak on the news.

Bear Case: Elevance still faces structural margin pressure, with Medicaid margins expected to trough in 2026 before gradually improving, and mixed profitability at its CarelonRx and Carelon Services units means today’s positive tracking update doesn’t resolve all of the sector’s underlying cost challenges.

Technical Levels: Support at $407 (Thursday’s intraday low); resistance at $422 (Thursday’s intraday high), then the 52-week high of $436.24.

Forecast: With guidance now reaffirmed ahead of schedule and shares trading well below fair-value estimates by some analyst models, continued strength into Friday would confirm the market is crediting management’s confidence rather than treating it as a one-day pop.

Why This Matters: Elevance’s proactive guidance reaffirmation offers a useful, real-time data point on managed-care cost trends — a sector closely watched for signs of medical-cost inflation that could ripple across the broader healthcare space.

10. American Airlines (AAL) | Oil-Driven Pressure Point

The Carrier Most Exposed to Triple-Digit Crude

With WTI crude closing at $102.48 and Brent settling at $107.63 Thursday — the highest levels since May — American Airlines stands out as the U.S. carrier with the least financial insulation against the renewed spike in fuel costs heading into Friday’s session.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Unlike Delta, which has historically leaned into premium cabin pricing and stronger balance sheet management to offset fuel volatility, American Airlines has been actively cutting capacity across domestic, Atlantic, and Pacific routes to manage costs — a defensive posture that reflects real financial strain rather than proactive route optimization, according to sector analysts.

Bull Case: Airlines industry-wide have shown some ability to pass through higher fuel costs via fare increases (U.S. domestic fares were up over 25% year-over-year as of July 2026), and any de-escalation in the Iran conflict would provide the fastest, most direct relief to American’s cost structure among all major carriers.

Bear Case: A negative book equity position combined with the industry’s least-hedged fuel exposure leaves American Airlines with minimal room to absorb a sustained period of $100+ oil, and continued capacity cuts signal management itself may be bracing for a prolonged high-fuel-cost environment.

Technical Levels: As with the broader airline sector, American Airlines shares are trading below key technical support levels established earlier in the year, reflecting the market’s ongoing repricing of oil-driven travel-sector risk.

Forecast: American Airlines’ stock is likely to remain a direct, high-beta proxy for oil price movements — any sustained move above $100 WTI would continue to pressure shares, while a ceasefire or de-escalation headline could trigger an outsized relief rally given how much bad news is already priced in.

Why This Matters: American Airlines offers the clearest single-stock read on how the Iran conflict’s oil shock is rippling through the travel sector — a dynamic likely to remain in focus as long as the conflict continues.

Sector Sentiment Snapshot & Forecast

Friday’s session hinges on three distinct storylines converging simultaneously. Enterprise software (Oracle, Adobe) delivered two of the week’s most consequential earnings reports after Thursday’s close, both carrying options-implied moves large enough to move billions in market value — their reactions will set the tone for the broader software sector into the weekend. Merger arbitrage and defense-tech momentum (Skyworks, Qorvo, AeroVironment) showed that company-specific catalysts can still produce outsized gains even on a broadly negative macro day, while microcap and healthcare surprises (Tenon Medical, Elevance Health) demonstrated that balance-sheet de-risking and voluntary guidance updates can move stocks as dramatically as scheduled earnings. Layered on top of all of it, oil-sensitive travel names (American Airlines) remain a direct proxy for how much further the Iran conflict’s energy shock has to run.

With Friday’s CPI report landing the same morning as Kroger’s earnings and a Fed meeting just days away, expect volatility to remain elevated across the board — a hot inflation print could overwhelm even the most positive individual stock stories, while a benign reading could provide the market its first real relief in four sessions.

At a Glance: Tomorrow’s Top 10 Stocks to Watch

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Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss, and microcap and merger-arbitrage stocks carry elevated risk. Stock prices, percentage moves, and market data cited reflect figures available at the time of publication and are subject to change as trading continues. Several stocks discussed had reported earnings after this publication’s cutoff or had not yet reported at all — actual results and subsequent market reactions may differ significantly from the expectations described here. Analyst price targets and ratings are third-party estimates and do not guarantee actual results. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.

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Kasia Davis

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