Wall Street heads into the last week of September with oil back near $106 a barrel for Brent, a 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 5.2%, and a fresh geopolitical jolt: futures slipped on Sunday night after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That backdrop shapes a busy Monday for the top stocks to watch tomorrow — a defense-drone maker whose Air Force contract just more than doubled, a Wall Street boutique and a ski-resort operator both reporting after the bell, a tungsten miner and a chip-testing specialist riding momentum, and a geothermal developer sitting just above its 52-week low. Below are 10 setups, each with a full data table, support and resistance levels, bull and bear cases, and a forecast — deliberately skipping the mega-caps to focus on names most watchlists are overlooking.

Today’s Market Snapshot: What’s Setting Up Monday’s Session

U.S. stocks closed Friday higher, with the Dow gaining 0.93% and the S&P 500 up 0.51%, even as Treasury yields pushed to multiyear highs. Sunday-evening futures pointed modestly lower as crude climbed.

The week’s macro drivers are lopsided toward the second half. There are no major economic reports on Monday, according to Schwab’s weekly calendar, but Tuesday brings Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings, Wednesday delivers ADP, the third estimate of Q2 GDP and the PCE inflation data, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report could decide whether yields keep climbing. Bloomberg data cited by Schwab put the odds of an October Fed rate hike at roughly 66%, up from 53% a week earlier — which is why rate-sensitive stocks deserve extra scrutiny. A market-calendar preview also lists a Fed Governor Michelle Bowman appearance at 8:15 a.m. ET Monday.

Earnings on the Calendar This Week:

How we set the levels below: for Ondas, Jefferies and Vail Resorts, support and resistance use classic pivot-point math on Friday’s confirmed high, low and close. For the other seven, levels are anchored to verified reference prices — Thursday’s close, Friday’s close, 52-week extremes, recently reported swing prices, analyst targets and round-number thresholds — and are analytical reference zones, not predictions.

The 10 Top Stocks to Watch Tomorrow, Ranked by Catalyst Strength

1. Ondas Holdings (ONDS) | Last Close $7.64 (+0.53%) | Air Force Contract Doubles

The Pentagon’s Reaper Alternative — With 41% of the Float Sold Short

The U.S. Air Force more than doubled the value of its contract with DZYNE Technologies, now part of Ondas, to about $85.6 million, and the timing — with the Iran standoff escalating again — puts the small-cap drone name squarely on Monday’s radar.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

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Catalysts & News: The Pentagon’s daily contract update showed a $46,087,217 modification to a previously awarded contract for operational assessment of an uncrewed long-endurance tactical reconnaissance aircraft, lifting the cumulative face value to $85,643,057 from $39,555,840, with work running through March 2031. Analysts frame the ULTRA platform as a lower-cost complement to the roughly $16 million-per-unit MQ-9 Reaper, and Ondas has also been on an acquisition spree, adding three defense-technology businesses and the GATE and Bron precision-strike component makers in recent weeks.

Fundamentals: Ondas posted record second-quarter revenue of $83.8 million and raised full-year 2026 guidance to $525–$550 million, with trailing revenue of about $174 million and roughly 570 million shares outstanding.

Technicals: Friday’s session was a tight, high-volume consolidation — 71 million shares changed hands inside a 29-cent range — and the stock has slid from its $15.28 high toward the $7s while short interest sits near 41% of the float. The stock is trading roughly 50% below its 52-week high.

Bull Case: A doubled Air Force program validates ULTRA as a real procurement path, momentum funds tend to bid defense-tech names when geopolitical headlines flare, and heavy short interest can turbocharge a move if follow-on orders arrive.

Bear Case: Stock-funded acquisitions bring dilution and integration risk across several businesses at once, the shares carry a 2.74 beta, and a break below $7.41 would erase the base that has held since early September.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• A push above $7.82–$7.99 on volume above Friday’s 71 million shares
• Any follow-on ULTRA order or acquisition-closing headline
• A hold above $7.53 in the first hour

Forecast: Expect an active open with the $7.99–$8.11 zone as the first real test; a close above $8.11 would put the $9–$10 area back in play, while a failure below $7.41 opens $7.24.

Why This Matters: Ondas is the cleanest small-cap read on whether Pentagon money is actually flowing to cheaper, attritable drones.

2. Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) | Last Close $47.68 (+3.11%) | Reports After the Bell

The Capital-Markets Bellwether Prints Its Q3 With the Stock 32% Off Its High

Jefferies rallied 3.11% into its report, with analysts expecting earnings of about $1.00 per share on roughly $2.2 billion in revenue — and its results traditionally set the tone for how investors read the bigger banks’ trading and advisory lines.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

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Catalysts & News: The report lands after a rough patch: last quarter Jefferies posted EPS of $1.02 against a $1.16 estimate and revenue of $2.21 billion versus $2.30 billion expected. The board authorized a $250 million buyback in June, and the call’s commentary on deal pipelines and trading activity will matter more than the backward-looking print.

Fundamentals: Net margin sits near 7.6%, return on equity about 9.2%, and the shares trade near a three-year-low multiple of roughly 13x earnings.

Technicals: Friday’s bounce from a $45.97 low to $47.68 leaves the stock beneath both major moving averages; the $50–$51 zone (pivot R3 plus the 200-day) is the ceiling bulls must clear to change the trend.

Bull Case: A low multiple, a 3%+ dividend yield, a buyback in place and upwardly revised earnings estimates set a modest bar; any sign of a reopening investment-banking pipeline could spark a sharp relief rally.

Bear Case: Jefferies has missed consensus in its most recent report, the stock’s 50-day trend is decisively lower, and a leverage-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity near 2.0) offers little margin for a soft trading quarter.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• Pre-earnings drift between $46.53 and $48.28
• After-hours reaction to investment-banking fees and any capital-return update
• Read-through moves in other mid-tier brokers Tuesday

Forecast: With the report after the close, Monday’s regular session should be range-bound; the real move comes Tuesday, where a beat that reclaims $50.82 would target the low $50s, while a miss puts $44.78 in play.

Why This Matters: As one of the first financial firms to print each quarter, Jefferies shapes expectations for the rest of the capital-markets complex heading into October’s earnings season.

3. Vail Resorts (MTN) | Last Close $136.11 (−1.24%) | Reports After the Bell

A 6.5% Dividend Yield, Cut Price Targets, and a Pass-Sales Verdict Due

Vail’s fiscal fourth-quarter report drops after Monday’s close, with analysts modeling revenue of about $270 million and a per-share loss near $5.37 in what is seasonally the company’s weakest quarter — so the outlook and pass-sales trends will do all the talking.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

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Catalysts & News: Vail’s results arrive after a string of analyst reductions: BNP Paribas cut the stock to Neutral on Sept. 21 citing further declines in lift-ticket pricing, and Mizuho and Stifel trimmed targets Sept. 24. The company also just restructured Epic Pass pricing, cutting prices for younger skiers while raising them for those over 30.

Fundamentals: Vail has missed consensus in three of the last four quarters (average miss about 2.8%), and management has described last winter as among the hardest in the Rockies in over 30 years, with the lowest snowfall in decades for Colorado and Utah resorts. Last September’s report showed pass units down roughly 3% and sales dollars up about 1%, the year-over-year baseline for this week’s update.

Technicals: The stock closed on nearly double its average volume while slipping 1.24%, a sign of positioning ahead of the print; it has held well above its April low of $118.51 but sits about 17% under its high.

Bull Case: A 6.5% yield, an expected cost-savings program beat, and any stabilization in pass sales dollars could squeeze a stock that analysts have already marked down.

Bear Case: Falling lift pricing, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity near 5x per CNBC data) and a history of earnings misses raise the risk of another guidance disappointment — and the dividend’s sustainability becomes the debate if pass demand weakens.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• Regular-session drift between $134.37 and $138.67 before the report
• Pass units and sales dollars versus last year’s −3% and +1%
• FY2027 guidance and any dividend commentary

Forecast: Tuesday’s open will likely gap 5%+ in either direction; a strong pass-sales update could lift the stock toward $141–$143, while a soft outlook risks a test of $130.

Why This Matters: Vail is the market’s clearest referendum on whether premium consumer spending can hold up as yields climb and inflation expectations rise.

4. Almonty Industries (ALM) | Last Close $13.72 (+10.65%) | Tungsten Momentum

A Critical-Minerals Rally That Just Ran Into Goldman’s $13 Target

Almonty jumped 10.65% Friday as its Sangdong tungsten mine moved into commercial reality, with Goldman Sachs initiating at Neutral and a $13 price target — right at the level the stock now trades.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Sangdong’s processing facilities received final certification on Sept. 17, clearing commercial invoicing; a new Rwanda joint venture adds a tungsten concession and processing license; an offtake agreement with a Sandvik subsidiary covers concentrate from the idle Los Santos mine in Spain; and the board authorized a buyback of up to 14.4 million shares, roughly $300 million, over 36 months.

Fundamentals: Second-quarter revenue rose 498% to $43 million, more than 90% of Phase I output is committed to a 21-year offtake agreement, and the balance sheet carries roughly $1.2 billion in cash after an $800 million convertible note offering.

Technicals: Friday’s close reclaimed Goldman’s $13 target on 1.6 times average volume; the late-August swing near $17.80 marks the ceiling from the prior leg down.

Bull Case: Non-Chinese tungsten supply is scarce, Sangdong now has contracted sales, and the buyback signals management confidence — all catalysts that can extend a strong 52-week uptrend.

Bear Case: A 47x P/E already prices in a smooth ramp, Goldman’s Neutral rating caps near-term upside at its own target, and the stock has whipsawed between $12 and $17 in a month.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• Whether $13.00 holds as support on a pullback
• A push through $14.50 on volume above 10 million shares
• Any Sangdong shipment or offtake update

Forecast: Expect consolidation between $12.40 and $14.50 near term; a close above $15 would signal the run is extending toward $17.80.

Why This Matters: Almonty is the market’s cleanest public play on Western tungsten independence, a theme that tends to strengthen whenever supply-chain and defense headlines heat up.

5. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) | Last Close $104.39 (+7.15%) | AI Chip-Testing Bottleneck

Up 222% in a Year, With Micron’s Print Coming Wednesday

Aehr closed at $104.39 after Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $175 target, and this week’s Micron earnings report could color sentiment across the entire AI-semiconductor supply chain.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Aehr announced a $22 million follow-on production order from its lead wafer-level AI processor customer, and Jefferies analyst Kevin Garrigan called it the only vendor offering both wafer-level and full-package burn-in test solutions.

Fundamentals: Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 160% to 200%, backed by a $100.6 million backlog.

Technicals: The stock recaptured the $100 level on average volume, but it remains well below its $147.40 high after a violent 2026 run.

Bull Case: AI chip complexity is making burn-in testing a bottleneck, backlog visibility is strong, and analysts are still initiating with Buy ratings.

Bear Case: A single “lead customer” drives the story, insiders have been selling into strength, and a stock that has nearly quadrupled this year can drop sharply on any order slip.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• A hold above $100 on the open
• Semiconductor peers’ reaction to yield moves
• Positioning ahead of Micron Wednesday

Forecast: The $110–$115 zone is the first test; below $97.42, the $90 round-number level becomes the target.

Why This Matters: Aehr’s order flow is a real-time gauge of whether AI chip production is scaling as fast as the hype implies.

6. Fervo Energy (FRVO) | Last Close $15.18 (−9.16%) | 4% Above Its 52-Week Low

From First Power to First Selloff: A Milestone Meets a Price-Target Cut

Fervo fell 9.16% Friday even after Cape Station in Utah reached First Power, because Bank of America trimmed its target to $30 from $36 — leaving shares about 4% above their 52-week low.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Cape Station delivered its first power to the grid Thursday, the company won two Department of Energy awards worth roughly $20 million on Sept. 22, and the stock was added to multiple Russell indices. BofA’s trim cited slower-than-expected timing and more cautious valuations across geothermal peers.

Fundamentals: Fervo listed in May, raising about $1.89 billion, and reports roughly $2.1 billion in cash against a net loss of about $145 million over the trailing year and minimal revenue. Contracted power-purchase agreements, including a 396-megawatt Google agreement, underpin the bull thesis.

Technicals: The stock erased Thursday’s entire 8.2% gain, closed on twice its average volume, and now sits within reach of its $14.60 low; Thursday’s $16.16–$18.80 range is overhead supply.

Bull Case: Geothermal offers baseload carbon-free power for AI data centers, analysts remain overwhelmingly positive on targets far above the price, and a hold near the lows would look like capitulation.

Bear Case: A sell-off on good news is a bad tape, second-quarter losses were far wider than expected, and a break below $14.60 would put the stock in uncharted territory for its short public life.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• Whether $14.60 holds on any morning dip
• A recovery of $16.16 (Thursday’s low) to fill the gap
• More analyst notes reacting to First Power

Forecast: Expect a volatile bounce-or-break setup: a reclaim of $16.16 targets $16.71, while a close below $14.60 opens $14.00 and then $13.00.

Why This Matters: Fervo tests whether the market will pay for AI-driven power demand before revenue arrives — and today’s lows will show how patient that capital really is.

7. Firefly Aerospace (FLY) | Last Close $24.36 (+5.50%) | Space and Defense Bid

A 61% Drawdown Meets an Escalating Iran Standoff

Firefly climbed 5.5% on 1.5 times average volume as space and defense stocks caught a bid, and Sunday’s Hormuz escalation keeps that trade in focus.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines and Planet Labs also rose Friday. Firefly has a two-year extension of its multi-launch Alpha agreement with Lockheed Martin (up to 25 launches), was onboarded to a $981 million Space Force IDIQ vehicle, and its SciTec unit holds a $93.7 million radar contract.

Fundamentals: EBITDA margin sits near −139%, and shareholder litigation remains active, but the company keeps a diversified NASA, Defense Department and commercial backlog.

Technicals: The 5.5% bounce came off a $23.09 prior close, with an intraday low near $23.23 and a session high around $25.58; $25 is the immediate psychological ceiling.

Bull Case: Government demand for responsive launch is rising, every covering analyst keeps a Buy, and the stock is deeply oversold versus its 52-week range.

Bear Case: Three consecutive target cuts from Buy-rated analysts show execution doubts, and a sub-$23 close would erase Friday’s gain.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• Space-sector follow-through (Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines)
• A push through $25.00–$25.58
• Any contract or launch-schedule update

Forecast: A clean break above $25.58 targets $27; failure to hold $23.09 would retest $22.

Why This Matters: Firefly shows whether defense and space enthusiasm can rescue a heavily de-rated 2025 IPO-era name.

8. EquipmentShare (EQPT) | Last Close $17.35 (+6.31%) | Short-Seller Skirmish Continues

Blue Orca Says Hidden Liabilities; Management Says Inaccurate

EquipmentShare bounced 6.31% Friday after Blue Orca Capital’s short report knocked it down roughly 6% to 7.5% the day before, and the fight between the short seller and management is far from settled.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Blue Orca alleged hidden liabilities tied to the company’s OWN Program accounting; EquipmentShare issued a rebuttal Friday calling the report inaccurate and misleading. A separate shareholder lawsuit concerning related-party disclosures is also pending.

Fundamentals: Trailing revenue is roughly $4.95 billion against a thin net margin near 1.25%, giving the stock little valuation cushion.

Technicals: R1 near $17.60 approximates the pre-short-report level; the $15.71 52-week low has been the floor.

Bull Case: A detailed rebuttal, a maintained Buy rating from Truist and a large, fragmented equipment-rental market give the bounce a rationale.

Bear Case: The core accounting allegations are unresolved, sentiment is fragile, and a P/E above 220x leaves no margin for error.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• A close above $17.60 to fully fill the short-report gap
• New short-seller commentary or company responses
• Analyst notes addressing the OWN accounting

Forecast: Volatile range trade between $16.32 and $18.00; a break below $15.71 would signal the market siding with the short seller.

Why This Matters: It’s a live test of whether a rebuttal can neutralize a short report — a pattern that repeats across many recent IPOs.

9. Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) | Last Close $68.58 (+6.20%) | Insider Buying Meets 5% Yields

Executives Bought at $64 — But Rates Are the Headwind

Howard Hughes jumped 6.20% on nearly double its average volume after Executive Chairman Marc Grandisson bought 25,000 shares at about $64.12, but a rising 10-year yield is a serious counterweight for a real-estate developer.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Two open-market insider buys within a day, upward FY2026 revenue-estimate revisions and Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square as a large holder anchor the bullish story.

Fundamentals: A P/E near 13x for a master-planned-community land developer is modest compared with many real-estate peers.

Technicals: The stock cleared its insiders’ entry price convincingly; $64.12–$64.58 is now the cluster of support.

Bull Case: Insiders paid roughly $64 and the stock has held above it; land-sale economics are recurring; valuation is undemanding.

Bear Case: With a 5.18% 10-year yield and 66% October-hike odds, housing-linked stocks face pressure, and a low-volatility name doubling its volume often mean-reverts.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• A hold above $66–$68 on any yield spike
• Volume versus Friday’s ~1M
• New Form 4 filings

Forecast: A close above $70 would confirm the breakout toward $72; a slide to $64.12 would test insider conviction.

Why This Matters: It’s a real-time check on whether insider buying can overpower a rising-rate backdrop.

10. Penguin Solutions (PENG) | Last Close $56.22 (+5.92%) | The Agentic-AI Compute Trade

A Server-Infrastructure Name Riding Micron Week

Penguin gained 5.92% on lighter-than-average volume as AI-infrastructure stocks jumped alongside ON Semiconductor on demand tied to Meta’s new agentic assistant.

Full Data & Technical Snapshot:

Catalysts & News: Broadening compute demand — general-purpose servers and memory, not just GPUs — lifted the group, and management is presenting at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference.

Fundamentals: Penguin markets itself as a full-stack “AI factory” platform spanning servers, memory and HPC software.

Technicals: The rally came on about half of average volume — a caution flag — and the stock is still 37% below its high.

Bull Case: Buy-rated consensus with targets ~32% above the price, memory-cycle tailwinds and conference exposure.

Bear Case: Barclays’ $40 target sits far below the stock, earnings reactions have been messy, and light-volume rallies often fade.

What to Watch Tomorrow:

• A hold above $53.08
• Volume expansion above the 2.78M average
• Micron positioning

Forecast: Clearing $60 on volume opens $65; below $53.08, $50 is the next stop.

Why This Matters: Penguin is the small-cap barometer for whether the agentic-AI compute thesis extends beyond the big GPU names.

Sector Sentiment Snapshot & Forecast for Monday

Four narratives will drive tomorrow’s tape. Geopolitics is the loudest: Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal supports crude near $106 Brent and keeps defense, drone and strategic-metals names — Ondas, Firefly, Almonty — in play. After-the-bell earnings from Jefferies and Vail make Monday’s session a positioning day, with the real moves Tuesday. AI infrastructure (Aehr, Penguin) is coiling into Wednesday’s Micron report. And rates cut across everything: with the 10-year near 5.2% and October-hike odds around 66%, Howard Hughes, Vail and EquipmentShare are the most exposed.

Schwab’s Nathan Peterson rates the near-term outlook “moderately bullish,” pointing to the semiconductor index’s breakout above its 50-day average, a new Nasdaq record earlier in the week and improving seasonality — while warning that weakening market breadth and Friday’s jobs report are the main risks. If yields stop climbing, small and mid-caps with real catalysts should outperform; if oil and yields spike together, expect a defensive open. For more speculative ideas beyond these mid-caps, browse our penny stocks under $2 list and our markets hub.

At a Glance: Top Stocks to Watch Tomorrow (Sept. 28, 2026)

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Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss, and small-cap and mid-cap stocks like those featured here carry elevated volatility risk. Stock prices, percentage moves, and market data cited reflect figures available at the time of publication and are subject to change as trading continues. Support and resistance levels are analytical reference points, not guarantees of future price behavior. Analyst price targets and ratings are third-party estimates and do not guarantee actual results. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.

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Kasia Davis

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