SPHR stock had its worst session since April on Monday. Sphere Entertainment closed at $110.83, down $17.45 or nearly 14%, its lowest close since late March, after Craig-Hallum cut the shares to Hold and slashed its target to $132 from $170. The reason is a single show: demand for The Wizard of Oz at Sphere is softening faster than the analyst expected. Yet on Stocktwits, retail traders still read the stock as “Extremely Bullish.” Here is the full picture for Tuesday, with the levels that matter.
Quick Snapshot (as of October 5, 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Close | $110.83 |
| Day’s Move | -13.6% (-$17.45) |
| Previous Close | $128.25 (Friday, Oct 2) |
| Open | $120.99 (gap down) |
| 52-Week High | $176.38 (August 2026) |
| Distance From High | About -37% |
SPHR Stock Today: Monday’s Market Snapshot
| Metric | Monday Close / Reading |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,773.95 (+0.66%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,477.31 (+1.05%), record close |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,267.90 (+0.18%) |
| Russell 2000 | 2,853.27 (+0.72%) |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | ~5.31%, a new 52-week high |
| Oil | WTI near $90 |
SPHR fell hard on a day when the Nasdaq finished at a record, so this was a stock-specific move, not a market one. The 10-year yield hit a fresh 52-week high, and Fed minutes land Wednesday, which keeps pressure on richly valued growth names.
Data note: The close and move come from Seeking Alpha. Intraday figures (open, volume, RSI) are from MarketBeat and Benzinga at the time of their reports. Support and resistance levels are analytical zones built from verified prices, moving averages and analyst targets, not guaranteed targets. Where no authoritative figure was available, we say “roughly” or “not confirmed.”
Why Is SPHR Stock Down? The Craig-Hallum Downgrade Explained
One Show, One Analyst, One 13.6% Gap Down
Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl downgraded SPHR to Hold from Buy before the open and lowered his price target by $38. According to StockStory, the stock fell about 12.3% in the afternoon session, and it extended losses into the close. The downgrade also followed a decline already underway: SPHR closed at $141.13 on September 25 and $128.25 on October 2, so the stock has lost roughly 21.5% in two weeks.
The numbers behind the call:
- Sphere said last Monday that the show passed $500 million in ticket sales and 4 million tickets. In June it was $400 million and 3 million.
- That implies ticket sales slowed from roughly $40 million a month to under $30 million a month, while volume held. Average ticket prices appear to have slipped from about $133 to near $100 (TIKR’s rough estimate).
- All 220 Sphere Experience performances in the June quarter were The Wizard of Oz, so the venue has little else to lean on.
- The updated 4D version released September 25 has not clearly changed the trend, and there are no dates yet for the Rocky Horror or From the Edge experiences.
SPHR Stock Price Data: Full Technical & Fundamental Table
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | NYSE: SPHR |
| Last Close | $110.83 |
| Previous Close | $128.25 |
| Day’s Move | -13.6% |
| Open | $120.99 |
| 52-Week Range | ~$40 – $176.38 (closing basis, per Equibles) |
| Market Cap | ~$4.0B ($4.09B at midday price of ~$113.49) |
| P/E (TTM) | Negative (about -42.7 at midday); FY EPS estimate -$2.34 |
| Dividend Yield | None |
| Volume vs. Average | 446K by midday vs. ~733K 30-day average; full-day total not confirmed |
| YTD Performance | Roughly +17% (+20.3% at $113.43) |
| RSI (14) | ~23.75 (deeply oversold, per Benzinga intraday) |
| 50-Day / 200-Day SMA | $148.31 / $141.29 |
| Beta | 1.61 |
| Short Interest | Roughly 18% of float, ~8.7 days to cover (earlier data) |
| Forward EV/Revenue | ~3.3x after drop (3.7x Friday; 2.5x three-year average) |
| Analyst Consensus | Moderate Buy: 11 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell; average target $168.29 |
| Support 1 / 2 / 3 | $110 / $100 / ~$94 |
| Resistance 1 / 2 / 3 | $121 / $128.25 / $141.29 |
| Next Earnings | Expected in November (date not confirmed) |
SPHR Stock Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Oversold at 23.75, Below Every Major Average
SPHR sits far under its 50-day ($148.31) and 200-day ($141.29) averages. Benzinga notes the stock is in a clear short-term downtrend, with the 20-day below the 50-day and RSI in oversold territory. An oversold reading does not guarantee a bottom.
| Level Type | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | ~$110 | Monday’s closing zone, lowest close since late March |
| Support 2 | $100 | Round-number psychological level |
| Support 3 | ~$94 | Approximate start-of-year price (derived) |
| Resistance 1 | ~$121 | Monday’s opening print after the gap |
| Resistance 2 | $128.25 | Friday’s close; gap-fill level |
| Resistance 3 | $132 | Craig-Hallum’s new target |
| Major Resistance | $141.29 / $148.31 | 200-day and 50-day averages |
Prices to Watch: A close back above $121 would show buyers absorbing the downgrade, while a sustained move over $128.25 would close the gap. Below $110, the next logical test is $100.
SPHR Stock Fundamentals and Analyst Targets: Wall Street Is Still Mostly Bullish
Cutting a Target to $132 Still Leaves It Above Where the Stock Closed
Sphere reported fiscal fourth-quarter results on July 30, with revenue of $313.64 million, up 10.9%, and an adjusted loss of $1.07 per share versus a $1.51 loss expected. Institutions own about 92% of shares.
Despite the downgrade, the Street has not turned. Piper Sandler holds an Overweight with a $185 target, Seaport a Buy at $191, and Benchmark a Buy at $175. Craig-Hallum’s $132 sits well below the $168.29 consensus, which makes it the outlier, not the trend. Analysts already model revenue leveling off near $1.4 billion through 2028, and TIKR argues that even that depends on Oz selling until the next show is ready.
SPHR Stock Sentiment: Why Retail Is ‘Extremely Bullish’ After the Drop
Dip Buyers Meet a Short-Seller Setup
Extremely Bullish sentiment on SPHR even as the stock fell, with traders noting that the average target is about 47% above the new price and that 11 analysts still rate it a Buy. Short interest was elevated in earlier data, which can fuel violent bounces but also signals that sellers have conviction. Retail enthusiasm after a 21% two-week slide is a contrarian signal in both directions: it can mean support, or it can mean the selling is not finished.
SPHR Stock Forecast: Bull Case vs. Bear Case
The Bull Case
- Oversold bounce setup. RSI near 24 and a stock 37% below its high create room for a relief rally toward $121–$128.
- Wall Street still leans Buy. A $168.29 consensus and targets up to $191 imply large upside.
- Oz is still selling. About 4 million tickets and $500 million in sales in 13 months is a real result, and the 4D update, a Disguise technology partnership and venue-expansion plans give the story more chapters.
The Bear Case
- Concentration risk. One show carried the venue in the June quarter, and the analyst says demand is fading faster than expected.
- Pricing pressure. Sales per month have slowed even as ticket counts held, pointing to lower average prices.
- Valuation and content gap. At roughly 3.3x forward revenue versus a 2.5x average, there is little cushion, and no dates for the next shows.
What to Watch:
- Whether SPHR holds $110 or breaks toward $100
- Any ticketing or pricing update from the company
- Dates for the next Sphere Experience shows
- The November earnings report for per-show revenue
Forecast: A hold at $110 with a close over $121 sets up a gap-fill test at $128.25. Failure at $110 opens $100. We read the near-term bias as cautious until the stock reclaims $128.25.
Why This Matters: SPHR is a test of whether a one-show venue can sustain a premium multiple, and Monday’s drop is the market asking for proof.
Entertainment Stocks Sector Snapshot and Forecast
Consumer and entertainment names are trading on durability of demand. A 5.3% 10-year yield pressures any stock priced for growth, and Las Vegas visitation remains a swing factor. For related reads on consumer-facing names, see our stocks to watch on Aug 7, including Airbnb and DraftKings and our top trending stocks from September 2. Sector forecast: Expect high-multiple entertainment stocks to trade defensively into Wednesday’s Fed minutes.
SPHR Stock At a Glance
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Last Close | $110.83 (-13.6%) |
| Catalyst | Craig-Hallum downgrade to Hold; target $132 from $170 |
| Core Issue | Wizard of Oz demand and pricing softening |
| Key Support | $110 / $100 |
| Key Resistance | $121 / $128.25 |
| Consensus Target | $168.29 (11 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell) |
| Retail Sentiment | Extremely Bullish (Stocktwits) |
| Next Catalyst | November earnings (date not confirmed) |
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Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss, and volatile stocks like Sphere Entertainment carry elevated risk. Stock prices, percentage moves, and market data cited reflect figures available at the time of publication and are subject to change as trading continues. Analyst price targets and ratings are third-party estimates and do not guarantee actual results. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades.
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