Stocks to Watch Tomorrow, Wednesday July 8 —> Tuesday was a chapter of contradictions. The Dow hit an all-time intraday record high — then closed lower. Samsung’s profits surged a staggering 19-fold to a new company record — and Korean chipmakers fell nearly 5%. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 — and immediately plunged 6.83% on its first day. And Rivian, fresh off a delivery beat, offered 75 million new shares and posted its worst single-day decline in over two years.

Wednesday resets the board entirely. At 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting — and it’s the most consequential Fed document in months. Here are the 8 stocks you need to have on your screen.

📊 Tuesday’s Close — The Setup Heading Into Wednesday

Overnight futures ahead of Wednesday’s open: S&P 500 +0.16%, Nasdaq-100 +0.55%, Dow −0.02%. The market is cautiously recovering — but the 2 PM FOMC minutes will change that narrative in either direction.

🔴 THE MAIN EVENT: FOMC Minutes — Wednesday, July 8 at 2:00 PM ET

This is the gravitational center of Wednesday’s session. Everything else is context.

What you need to know:

• The minutes document the June 16–17 FOMC meeting — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, appointed earlier this year
• The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting
• But the tone was hawkish. The June dot plot showed nine Fed officials expecting at least one rate hike before year-end 2026
• Warsh’s statement was a deliberately short ~130 words — no forward guidance, no explicit bias signals
• The minutes will reveal what Warsh and the committee actually discussed behind closed doors, including their views on: 4.2% CPI, sticky 3.5% wage growth, and the geopolitical risk premium in oil

Why Wednesday is different from other FOMC minutes days:

• The June 17 meeting predates Friday’s bombshell NFP report (57,000 jobs vs. 115,000 expected)
• The minutes will not reflect the weak labor data — but traders will be triangulating between the “hawkish June stance” and the subsequent “soft labor reality”
• The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.48% continues to offer real competition to equities
• Gold above $4,130/oz signals the market is already hedging Fed tail risk
• Any language in the minutes that suggests a rate hike timeline earlier than December 2026 could push bond yields higher and pressure growth stocks immediately

Key levels to watch at 2 PM ET:

• If minutes are hawkish → Treasury yields rise, tech/growth names sell off, financials may benefit
• If minutes are balanced/dovish → yields ease, rate-sensitive sectors (tech, REITs, utilities) rally
• SPX weekly expected move: ±64 points (0.84%) — the FOMC minutes could consume that entire range in an hour

💊 1. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CRNX) — +98.8% and Wednesday Is About the Arb

After-Hours Monday Surge: +98.8% | Vertex Deal: $85/share all-cash | Deal Close: Q3 2026

Vertex Pharmaceuticals dropped a $10 billion bombshell Monday after close: it’s buying Crinetics Pharmaceuticals for $85 per share in cash — an approximately 100% premium to Monday’s closing price. The deal went through Tuesday’s tape like wildfire.

What makes this Wednesday’s story:

• Crinetics develops treatments for endocrine diseases — rare hormonal conditions affecting glands. Its lead asset targets acromegaly (excess growth hormone) and a rare form of hormone-secreting pancreatic tumors
• Vertex said the acquisition strengthens its pipeline and could eventually add ~$5 billion in annual revenue once the Crinetics drug suite reaches peak commercialization
• The deal is all-cash, expected to close Q3 2026, subject to regulatory approval
• Deal arb traders will be watching the spread between Crinetics’ Tuesday close and the $85 acquisition price; any spread greater than 3–5% represents risk arb opportunity/risk

Wednesday’s specific watch: Analyst initiations and price target updates on VRTX following the deal. Several analysts will weigh in on whether Vertex overpaid — the acquisition represents significant capital deployment at what some view as a premium valuation. Watch VRTX’s reaction as a sentiment proxy for the deal’s reception.

💊 2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) — Did They Overpay?

Tuesday After-Hours: −2.04% | $10B Acquisition of CRNX | Full Earnings: July 30

VRTX’s -2.04% after-hours move reflected immediate investor skepticism about the deal price. But Vertex comes into this with strong fundamentals — its CF (cystic fibrosis) franchise generates enormous free cash flow, and the Crinetics platform in rare hormonal diseases is a legitimate strategic fit.

Key data:

• Vertex is one of the most cash-generative biotech companies in the world, with operating cash flow consistently above $3 billion annually
• The $10B price tag for CRNX is substantial but manageable given Vertex’s balance sheet
• The deal accelerates Vertex’s diversification away from CF dependency
• Wednesday will bring the first full wave of analyst commentary — buy-side and sell-side analysts who need to update models will publish throughout the day
• Watch for: Any analyst upgrades on the deal’s strategic merit vs. downgrades on valuation concerns

🚗 3. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) — The Worst Day in Two Years, and Wednesday Could Be Pivotal

Tuesday Close: ~$17.52 | Down −13%+ | Overnight: +0.3% | 52-Week Range: $11.57 – $22.69

Rivian announced a 75 million share offering Monday evening, seeking to raise approximately $1.5 billion (potentially $1.7B if underwriters exercise the full overallotment). The offering:

• Priced based on Monday’s close of $20.14 — but by Tuesday’s close the stock had fallen to $17.52, representing a −13% single-session decline
• Uses Goldman Sachs, Allen & Co., Barclays, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo as joint book-running managers
• Proceeds: General corporate purposes, including equity contributions under the DOE loan agreement for the new Georgia manufacturing plant

The Full Context:

• Q2 revenue guidance: $1.55B–$1.65B (above the $1.44B consensus — a beat)
• Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of June 30: $5.3 billion (up from $4.8B Q1)
• R2 delivery timeline concern: Customer reports on forums and X indicate growing R2 inventory at the Normal, IL plant — suggesting production is running but logistics/quality-check bottlenecks may be slowing deliveries
• R2 is critical: 20,000–25,000 deliveries targeted for 2026 — now under scrutiny

Analyst Reaction:

Wednesday setup: RIVN was up 0.3% overnight but still pricing in a significant dilution discount. The offering pricing (likely executed at $15.50–$16.50 per share after the drop) will be confirmed Wednesday morning. Any R2 delivery update from management or customer community could move the stock sharply. The Q2 full earnings are scheduled for July 30 — watch for any pre-announcement guidance.

🔩 4. Samsung Electronics / Chip Sector (MU, SNDK, NVDA, KLAC) — The Earnings That Won’t Stop Hurting

Tuesday’s market driver was Samsung Electronics’ preliminary Q2 2026 results:

• Revenue: 171 trillion Korean Won — missed the 172.181T consensus estimate
• Operating profit: ~89.4 trillion KRW — up 19-fold year-over-year, a new company record
• Result: KOSPI fell 4.9%–7.5% (sources vary), dragging U.S. chip stocks lower

The core problem isn’t Samsung’s numbers — 19x profit growth is extraordinary. The problem is expectations:

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge put it precisely: “The reaction to Samsung speaks to one of the biggest risks facing markets over the coming weeks: Q2 earnings results are likely to be quite robust on an absolute basis… but unlike with the Q1 season, expectations are presently very bullish, which means the bar is quite elevated.”

The compounding factor — DeepSeek developing its own chip:

Reuters reported Tuesday that DeepSeek (China’s AI lab behind the R2 and V3 models) is developing its own proprietary AI chip — a move that could reduce its dependency on Nvidia and Samsung hardware. If DeepSeek succeeds, it reduces the total addressable market for GPU and HBM memory at the margin.

Wednesday chip sector watch:

✈️ 5. SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) — The World’s Biggest IPO Met Its First Real Test

Tuesday Close: −6.83% | Dropped Below IPO Price During Session | Nasdaq-100 Addition Complete

SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, triggering an estimated $22–$27 billion in passive fund rebalancing (per JPMorgan’s pre-event estimate). The mechanical buying was supposed to support the stock — instead, it fell 6.83% and briefly traded below its IPO price.

Why:

• SpaceX’s free float is extremely limited — passive fund buying pressure was less than anticipated because there simply weren’t enough shares available to buy at scale
• The market was already in a risk-off, chip-rotation mode that overwhelmed the index-inclusion tailwind
• Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, and multiple Wall Street firms initiated coverage with positive ratings and price targets — but even that didn’t stem the first-day Nasdaq-100 decline

Wednesday setup: Post-inclusion volatility typically fades within 48 hours. The mechanical rebalancing is complete — now fundamentals take over. Wednesday will see the first full day of analyst coverage impacting the stock. A clean day of trade with no headline news could stabilize SPCX around IPO price. Any Trump/SpaceX commentary (Trump made “surprising comments” about Musk and SpaceX on July 4, per TheStreet) could move the stock in either direction.

⛽ 6. Energy Stocks (XOM, CVX, DVN, OXY) — Iran’s Back, Oil’s Back Above $70

Tuesday night’s news: Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington responded by revoking Iran’s license to sell oil.

• WTI crude: above $70/barrel (recovering from $67–$68 earlier in the week)
• The U.S.-Iran ceasefire narrative — which drove oil’s 40% decline from April peaks — is back under pressure
• Energy stocks (XOM, CVX, DVN, OXY) will be in focus Wednesday as oil’s direction determines sector performance

Wednesday watch:

• Any diplomatic update from the Doha talks (US-Iran negotiations via Qatar/Pakistan) could swing oil prices $3–5/barrel intraday
• If Iran escalates further: oil could push back toward $75–$80, providing a significant tailwind for energy equities
• If Doha talks produce a de-escalation statement: oil gives back the Tuesday night gains quickly

🌞 7. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) — Deutsche Bank Says Buy the Dip

Tuesday Move: +~3% | Deutsche Bank Upgrade: Neutral → Buy | Catalyst: Trade policy shifts

First Solar surged nearly 3% Tuesday after Deutsche Bank upgraded it from Neutral to Buy, citing “potential trade policy shifts” as the key reason to add exposure. The upgrade comes as:

• U.S. domestic solar manufacturing policy continues to favor companies like First Solar (the only major U.S.-based solar panel manufacturer)
• Tariff protections on imported Chinese solar panels remain in place and are expected to extend under the current administration
• First Solar’s Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) technology differentiates it from Chinese silicon-based panel competition
• AI data centers are creating unprecedented electricity demand — new solar installations are a primary beneficiary

Wednesday setup: Post-upgrade momentum stocks often see institutional follow-through on the next session. Watch for volume confirmation of Deutsche Bank’s call. If chip stocks continue to sell off, capital rotating into renewable energy/industrials benefits FSLR.

🛡️ 8. Defense Stocks (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD) — NATO Summit + Iran Re-escalation

The NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey continued Tuesday with U.S. Ambassador Matthew Whitaker making a statement that rattled European defense ministries:

“The target is that Europe takes over the conventional defense of the European continent… We’re not going away, we’re just doing less.”

What this means for Wednesday:

• U.S. pressure on European NATO members to hit 3%+ of GDP in defense spending is creating urgency — and procurement
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): Recently secured a $35B THAAD contract and holds an $8.4B Precision Strike Missile extension — direct beneficiary of NATO rearming
• Raytheon/RTX: PAC-3 missile systems, air defense — core NATO procurement priority
• General Dynamics (GD) and Northrop Grumman (NOC): Ground combat systems and B-21 bomber, respectively
• Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels Tuesday further validates the defense spending urgency argument

📅 Wednesday’s Full Calendar

Follow TNN for daily stock market news and financial news today.

Disclaimer: This publication is entirely for informational and journalistic purposes and does not constitute formal financial, investment, or legal advice. All market investments carry inherent risks of capital loss. Always complete independent due diligence prior to executing equity trades. Prices referenced reflect Tuesday July 7, 2026 closing data and overnight futures. FOMC minutes can create sudden, sharp market moves in either direction. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Further Reading:

• Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes Release — July 8, 2026 at 2 PM ET
• Crinetics / Vertex Deal — SEC Filing
• Rivian 75M Share Offering Prospectus
• Samsung Q2 2026 Preliminary Earnings
• SpaceX SPCX — Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Details
• Iran Strait of Hormuz Oil Export Update — Reuters
• Schwab Weekly Trader’s Outlook — July 6, 2026
• FactSet Q2 2026 Earnings Insight

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Kasia Davis

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